The Latest Jobs Data Follies

As the end of the Zero Hedge post notes, the surveys on which this data is based have become increasingly unreliable, so I am not sure why we pay any attention to it.   But the jobs, openings, layoffs and terminations report supposedly tells us a lot about the trends in the labor market.  Here’s the official release with links to all the tables.  (BLS Report)

Here is the ZH Post, wherein they do the usual great job of showing trends.  In November the number of job openings (as I have previously explained, this is a bogus number to begin with as company’s don’t actually intend to hire for all the jobs they supposedly have open) dropped slightly to just around 8.8 million.  It has declined consistently for some time.  Openings have dropped by 2 million in the last year (that is, YOY), almost all in the private sector. Government hiring is still going strong.  Similarly hires in the last year dropped by about 800,000, again, all private sector.  And terminations, which include voluntary quits, are viewed as positive if they are increasing, since it indicates that people feel like they can easily find jobs elsewhere, have also declined YOY by about 600,000, and you guessed it, also almost all private sector.  (ZH Post)

The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers is back to pre-epidemic level.  And hires, according to this report, which has about as much credibility as the payroll numbers we will get on Friday, were at a very low level.  So the Federal Reserve Board might feel like it has slowed the economy enough to control inflation.  And the market might think this means interest rates will come down.  But the Federal Reserve and inflation are no longer the key factors in interest rates—supply and demand are, and supply is soaring, and the deficit remains out of control, so interest rates won’t be going down, and that is the cost of money, which is a key inflation input for actual consumers.  The Bidementia administration has blatantly fiddled with jobs and economic stats, but that runs into reality at some point.  Spring to summer of this year would be great from my perspective as it means it would come when people are actually paying attention to the impending election.