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Weekly Economic Commentary

By May 16, 2024Commentary

No US Treasury Debt auctions this week.  The official inflation report was viewed as in line with expectations, so rates have drifted downward in expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates.  I continue to believe that this will be somewhat irrelevant, as supply factors this summer will overwhelm whatever the Fed tries to do.  Both in public companies’ earnings reports and in items like credit card deliquencies and retail sales numbers, it is apparent that a large portion of Americans are financially stressed and basically tapped out.  Prices are not shrinking, they continue to increase at a higher rate than wage growth.  The job market continues to be hard to read due to funny numbers from official sources compared to reports from other sources.  Housing looks slow.  Manufacturing is definitely slow.  So GDP for the second quarter is not likely to have significant growth.  For selfish political reasons, selfish meaning what would benefit the country, I am hoping all the money-pumping and debt creation has run out of steam and the rotten mess of our financial system and economy is exposed over the summer and early fall to help run the whackos and nutjobs out of the federal government.  Not that I really think Trump is much better, but at least there would be a chance to start addressing real problems and eliminating crazy spending, like student debt forgiveness and renewable energy subsidies.

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