I know I am a downer on the US economy and the direction and fate of our economy in general. But why shouldn’t I be, when the news constantly supports that perspective. The level of federal debt and deficit is my main concern, with rapidly growing interest payments only adding to the deficit and the debt. US debt was downgraded this week by one credit agency and the market is a little freaked out by the amount of debt issuance coming in the next few weeks. I will remind you again that interest is the price of money, which is used to buy everything else, and higher interest rates are themselves a component of inflation. Take a look at the 10 year and 30 year Treasury note charts. Don’t expect a downturn in interest rates any time soon, but a big downturn in the economy is inevitable, and I hope it comes about May or June of 2024.
Today’s employment report shows that the number of new jobs was less than expected, as even the Bidementia administration can only lie for so long. And keeping with the 2023 trend, every single initial job report has been revised lower, including June’s revisions in the July report. And wage growth is higher than expected, adding to inflation pressures. (ZH Post) Further examination reveals that full-time jobs actually dropped by 585,000 in July, while part-time jobs grew by 970,000; but over 115,000 of those, at least, are multiple job holders. So full-time jobs dropped substantially, part-time increased to provide all the supposed job gains, which will in any event be revised lower. And further monkeying in the numbers is found in the “birth/death” model, which refers not to people, but to companies. So the BLS estimates how many jobs were lost because businesses closed, and how many were gained because new firms opened. Miraculously in July, about 280,000 net jobs were created by this fiction, enough to account for all the supposed new jobs. (ZH Post) For most of you, this will sound a lot like CV-19 data–just make up whatever adjustments you need to get the answer you want; and never reveal the actual “raw” numbers. I think the truth is there is minimal, if any, real job growth, partly because we have tens of millions of slackers who don’t want to work, but also due to a weak economy. At the same time, companies have to pay those who want to work more, which keeps inflation pressures up. If it hasn’t already, this will eventually result in stagflation.
Here is the Wall Street Journal reporting on employers finding that young workers are totally unprepared to, wait for it, work. Why would anyone be surprised. For years public schools, and more importantly, universities, have focused on indoctrination and spend no time ensuring that students could read, write and do math. So today’s young adults can’t read, can’t write, can’t communicate verbally because they spend all their time watching TicTok videos, and certainly can’t actually analyse any issue–they can’t gather facts, they can’t make logical deductions. So they can maybe be taught to be Starbucks baristas or to sell clothing, but they can’t do any job that requires any meaningful thought and communication, much less be the engineers and scientists we need so desperately. (WSJ Article)
So, yeah, I think we are pretty much doomed to a declining standard of living; offset by sanity in a few states, like Florida and Texas.