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Year-Over-Year Charts, September 23

By September 25, 2021Commentary

These really are great charts and they just raise a lot of questions.  The biggest thing that catches my eye, is you can see, based now on actual date of death, that deaths will be higher this September than they were last year, and they are still primarily among the elderly.  For testing you see that dip in the summer, which is partly seasonal but partly school is out, so no more pestering kids about tests.  Note too however, that our testing regime is even more ludicrous this year than it was last year, primarily because we have these rapid tests that are nothing but mischief.  Cases generally follow testing, and while you could say more virus transmission means more testing, the reverse is just as true.  If you test it, the virus will come.

Cases decoupled somewhat from testing in early 2021, and there is a trend toward decoupling again now.  Active cases, which may also be testing influenced, are picking up earlier than they did last year, but again, we did not have as much rapid testing last fall.  Hospitalizations have unfortunately become less useful as a trend identifier due to so many incidental CV-19 diagnoses, but you can see they were pretty muted compared to the prior year.  While they seem to be rising past spring levels, I don’t trust the data a bit until the state comes clean on incidental hospitalizations among both the vaxed and unvaxed, and shows us what those levels have been over time.

And the only thing more I can say about deaths is that the vax worked pretty good in the spring, but seem to be losing steam and I suspect if we look at those deaths, we will see that a lot of them were among those old people vaxed early on.   Thanks to Dave Dixon for the usual stellar work.

Join the discussion 7 Comments

  • Anthony D says:

    Mr. Roche, a stupid question, please. In the context of the last graph, how can the daily US death rate “from C19” be ~2,000/ day, nearly twice that of a year ago? If 183M have received two doses plus ~100M had prior infection (of course there is overlap among these two groups), then, conservatively, let’s assume there are 225M Americans with some level of “natural” and/or vaccination-induced “defensive capability” (I’m avoiding “immunity”). 20% of Americans are under age 14 = 66M and their death rate is near zero. Thus, (330M-66M)=264M, minus the 225M = 40M “adults” age > 14 who have no “defense” at all. 2000/day annualized (an overestimate, of course) = 730k deaths this year. Although deaths occur in the vaccinated elderly too, these estimates would require a death rate of ~1.8% among the 40M with no defenses, a very high rate given that most of these individuals are immunocompetent and <70 years of age. Finally, even though immune response fades over time, it is unlikely to have done so in a sufficient number of people in either of the "protected" group to account for the death rates emanating from government sources.

    My point: Although I have no desire to defend our Teleprompter-in-Chief, isn't the most likely reason that many of the 2,000 deaths are dying WITH C19 (or a positive PCR) but not necessarily FROM C19? I see this all the time in my practice: vaccinated people (less commonly, patients with prior infection) develop mild URIs and – voila! a positive PCR, and they recover completely at home in a week or less, few need supplemental antibodies, and even fewer need hospitalization. You've described how expanded testing especially among the asymptomatic will inevitably lead to a rising "case rate" whether or not these folks are ill or infectious; this is certainly true. If my hypothesis that a large proportion of the "C19 deaths" are "with" rather than "from" C19 is correct, then further draconian measures to force the remaining 40M adults into vaccination will not only be futile but, even if successful, will not lead to a substantial reduction in the death rate "from" C19. (But maybe masks will help?….sorry, I have a warped sense of humor…).

  • Kevin Roche says:

    I think it is absolutely the case that CV-19 hosps and deaths are exaggerated by a bizarre attribution method, and that makes it hard psychologically to get out from under the epidemic.

  • Anthony D says:

    Thanks for the reply; I’m glad you agree. “…[I]t makes it hard psychologically to get out from under the epidemic” – true, but also politically, economically, and strategically. Even if we don’t assume evil intent on the part of the control freaks and demagogues, a vastly inflated death rate makes it impossible for a society to transition to the fact that C19 is now endemic – like HIV, Zika, influenza, etc. it will be with and among our species likely forever; it is not a virus like smallpox or polio that, in theory, can be eradicated. When I see a patient with a new cardiomyopathy, we include a rule-out of HIV among many other causes. Same with C19 for every patient presenting with possible symptoms thereof from now on. So be it.

    Ironically, the Teleprompter-in-Chief could (if his administration were smart enough, but, alas, they are not) declare a victory of sorts over C19 now. “The death rate among those with defenses (natural or via vaccination) is extraordinarily low in the generally healthy. We have nearly reached the inevitable equilibrium. Focus on research to define adequate immunity and strategies to maintain it. Those of you who exercise your right not to vaccinate, so be it.”

    As John Lennon said, “You may think I’m a dreamer….”

  • Donald Allen says:

    I know it agitates you but I was looking forward to your comments on the CDC mask lies. My school district used them to justify masks again and I was hoping for your insight so I could use them.

    Did I miss them?

  • Kevin Roche says:

    coming up

  • Larry says:

    Re: Anthony D.
    I agree, but how to reconcile deaths over the past 6-8 weeks reported by the CDC…
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
    …. with the low residual number of adults 30+ yo that are both unvaxed & not previously infected.
    The CDC numbers don’t make sense. It does not seem possible that we are around 125% weekly deaths.

  • Abhijit Bakshi says:

    Larry, COVID kills 125% of people, 125% of the time. It’s that deadly. That’s why everyone requires 125 vaccine shots and needs to wear 125 masks at the same time.

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