These really are great charts and they just raise a lot of questions. The biggest thing that catches my eye, is you can see, based now on actual date of death, that deaths will be higher this September than they were last year, and they are still primarily among the elderly. For testing you see that dip in the summer, which is partly seasonal but partly school is out, so no more pestering kids about tests. Note too however, that our testing regime is even more ludicrous this year than it was last year, primarily because we have these rapid tests that are nothing but mischief. Cases generally follow testing, and while you could say more virus transmission means more testing, the reverse is just as true. If you test it, the virus will come.
Cases decoupled somewhat from testing in early 2021, and there is a trend toward decoupling again now. Active cases, which may also be testing influenced, are picking up earlier than they did last year, but again, we did not have as much rapid testing last fall. Hospitalizations have unfortunately become less useful as a trend identifier due to so many incidental CV-19 diagnoses, but you can see they were pretty muted compared to the prior year. While they seem to be rising past spring levels, I don’t trust the data a bit until the state comes clean on incidental hospitalizations among both the vaxed and unvaxed, and shows us what those levels have been over time.
And the only thing more I can say about deaths is that the vax worked pretty good in the spring, but seem to be losing steam and I suspect if we look at those deaths, we will see that a lot of them were among those old people vaxed early on. Thanks to Dave Dixon for the usual stellar work.