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Active Cases, September 3

By September 5, 2021Commentary

It sure looks like a reversal, we are seeing declining percent gains in daily active cases, but I am very cautious because you see that weekly pattern–that is due to testing aberrations, the virus obviously doesn’t know what day of the week it is when someone is exposed, but people are getting forced testing for health care appointments or school or work, so we are’t seeing false positives or low asymptomatic positives on the weekend.  So every week you see that pattern where cases are low at the start and end of the week and peak in the middle.  Almost all due to testing.  Some could be due to more contacts on weekends and a few days incubation period til symptoms show up, but not much.  And now we will have more school testing, so testing distribution and numbers has a lot to do with reported cases.  We are watching this very, very carefully.  Thanks once more to Dave Dixon for all the excellent analytic and chart work.

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  • fred4d says:

    Besides the date of testing issues leading to peaky results, I think a lot of it has to do with reporting intervals. Originally a lot of places reported daily, I think we are seeing more once or twice a week , perhaps even once a fortnight, reporting now. See big spikes at the end of the month in new cases due to this. Europe starting doing this a long time ago. Also make for better headlines as the one day reports can be very high without the 7-day averages being very large.

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