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It’s CDC Day

By August 19, 2021Commentary

Before we get to our friends at the CDC, a refresher because I know people are fighting like hell against child abuse by school boards.  This BMJ piece provides the case against school closures.  It is relevant because the state of Minnesota and many other states are setting us up again for constant quarantines and closures of schools.  (BMJ Article)

Every now and then we get a batch of new studies published by the CDC.  I am always a little suspicious now, because they have been so obviously politicized, about the timing.  This batch appears to be aimed at reassuring us about vaccines, but some of the data is a little concerning.

The first study looks at the effectiveness of vaccines among nursing home residents, before and after the Delta invasion.  We all know the frail elderly, particularly in nursing homes, have been the special target for CV-19.  So while vaccines are generally less effective among the elderly, any help in this group would be critical.  Earlier in the epidemic, pre-Delta, effectiveness at preventing infection, which most people now recognize isn’t that relevant, was around 74%.  In the Delta era, effectiveness has declined to around 53%.  Severity was not specifically discussed, but other studies have suggested ongoing protection against hospitalizations and deaths even among this group.  Lag time from vaccination to infection was also not discussed.  (CDC Study)

Next up, a study on the overall effectiveness of vaccines among the adult population.  (CDC Study)   These researchers assessed effect on hospitalization.  Among all adults, effectiveness was 86% but if immuno-compromised persons were removed from the analysis, effectiveness rose to 90%.  The study only covered 6 months post vaccination, but saw no waning of effectiveness during that time.

Finally a study from New York on effectiveness among adults.  (CDC Study)   From the beginning of May to near the end of July, overall effectiveness against preventing infection declined from 92% to 80%.  Protection against hospitalization remained high throughout the study period, at over 92%.  Case rates by age group were similar between vaxed and unvaxed group.  And across age groups, vaccine effectiveness in regard to cases was similar, which is somewhat surprising, but there wasn’t generally a long time of observation after vaccination.  I would expect less effectiveness in the long run among older persons.  Effectiveness against hospitalization did show some age effect, with somewhat less effectiveness among the elderly.

I think the overall message from the CDC is vaccines work, but their effectiveness may wane over time, so get those boosters.  And they work well to protect against severe disease, maybe not so much against infections, at least infections measured by PCR tests.  Meanwhile, it appears the immunity from infection is more durable, although they are likely hiding reinfection data because it would make that clear.  A failure to design the best vaccines in part may be responsible for the appearance of waning protection.

Join the discussion 8 Comments

  • The Dark Lord says:

    and you trust the data from the CDC ? how sure are you with ANY of their statistics ? if they are hiding the data on prior infections what makes you think they are telling the truth on vaccines ?

  • J. Thomas says:

    Are you aware of any research ongoing to improve the current vaccine? At the current mutation rate and seasonal cycle length, this product will be relatively useless (if it’s still any good now) by the time the clinicals are competed in 2023. If they change the ‘formula’, does this restart the clock for the clinicals? I see an endless cycle of chasing ‘variants’ around year after year with endless government control schemes in our future. This is no more deadly than the flue over a 3 year run as it mutate toward it’s baseline affects.

    Corona virus vaccines with one targeted protein, bad idea. Early on-set treatment with known therapeutics, good idea.
    Jab kids and young adults, bad idea. Let them all get it, good idea.

  • J. Thomas says:

    GMU update regarding prior infections and the courts. I hope this is a tipping point for us regarding the forced jabs to maintain employment. I think the law says that you can’t be coerced into taking a vaccine … why isn’t loosing your job coercion?

  • J. Thomas says:

    Bottom line, countries that have used therapeutics instead of [vaccines] have lower overall death rates/million. Unfortunately, there is probably half-truth in every article and data set that’s out there at this point. With no reliable data, I’d think twice before becoming part of the experiment. See what the winter cycle brings, how the politics evolves and what the courts support. I think the 2 hot spots that need to be crushed immediately are; no jab, no job and jabbing kids. Everything else has time to play out.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      that is so misleading, Africa doesn’t have access to the vaccines and has a far, far younger population

  • Ann in L.A. says:

    It’s also release day for England’s 21st technical briefing of variants.

    All patients:

    Delta = 50 CFR = 2.2%
    Delta All CFR = 0.3%

    For people 2-weeks after second dose of vaccine:

    Delta = 50 CFR = 1.35%
    Delta All CFR = 0.18%

    That’s a tenth of the risk for vaccinated people than the 1.7% everyone keeps quoting.

    I don’t know how many cases England is missing, if it’s in the 3/4ths range that the CDC estimates for the US, then divide all those numbers by 4 for the IFR.

  • Ann in L.A. says:

    The post above doesn’t make much sense, since the comments app took out the less-than symbols. I’m on the wrong computer to repost it in a better format.

  • J. Thomas says:

    The point is, that you don’t need a [novel] vaccine to compete with this bad cold bug for 80% of the population. You need to let it run through the younger population unencumbered, provide early treatment for the working years population and vaccinate the old and medically compromised. This lack of common sense and the ‘fast, free and forced’ approach is ruining the reputations of the medical communities, the regulatory agencies and all government trust (if there ever was any with this bunch of morons). It’s also driving a social wedge deeper into our country, which is part of the Marxist’s ideology and strategy.

    We are being held together by a few dozen intelligent governors and a handful of courageous doctors, scientists and lawyers (you included) who are putting up public resistance to this medical tyranny. This entire sh*t show is following the playbook of the WEF, led by elite globalists who think it’s their destiny to control our lives. A group of sociopaths are now in charge of the world and they are literally paying to play their sick games on us. All who have accepted their grands, donations and financial leverage are just as culpable. They have to go !!

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