Breakthrough Events, October 6, Ages 5 to 11

Dave’s notes:

• The following charts show how vaccination status affects the risk of testing positive, being hospitalized, or dying of Covid for the 5-11 age group. We noted here https://healthy-skeptic.com/2022/10/07/incompetence-or-duplicity/ and here https://healthy-skeptic.com/2022/10/07/tables-showing-the-changes-in-breakthrough-events/ that on 10/06/2022 the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) had revised their reporting on breakthrough cases, admissions, and deaths, going back to the start of Covid breakthrough reporting. In general for the 5-11 age group cases and hospital admissions moved from the unvaccinated to the vaccinated, especially around the 1/09/2022 peak in Covid cases. However, the magnitude the changes is much less than seen in the other age groups. Note that MDH does not report data for boosters for this age group, or deaths.
• MDH added a note explaining the change in reporting on the Vaccine Breakthrough Data page https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html , buried in the notes under the graphic images, stating “As of October 6, an improved method to match patient data and vaccination records was implemented. This methodology was applied to all cases going back to the start of reporting on vaccine breakthrough cases.” We inquired with MDH if they had also improved any of the prior limitations in identifying Minnesotans who were vaccinated out of state (except Wisconsin, Iowa, and North Dakota, if vaccinated using a Minnesota address), by the Veterans Administration, or by a tribal health service. Unless Minnesotans who were vaccinated in these ways were identified by MDH during interviews for contract tracing they would appear in the data as unvaccinated. MDH confirmed that this was still the case. The changes announced on 10/06/2022 were simply improvements made in searching the vaccination records in the existing databases.
• This post is an update to the chart set for the 5-11 age group most recently published on 9/26/2022 here: https://healthy-skeptic.com/2022/09/26/breakthrough-events-september-22-age-5-to-11/.
• There are 6 charts in this set, 3 charts each for cases and hospital admissions. Each set of 3 charts consists of the actual events per week, the rate per 100k each week, and the proportion of events compared to the proportion of the vaccinated population. For the charts showing the raw numbers and rates per 100k, we are displaying both the data released on 10/06/2022, labelled ‘new’ and shown as solid lines, and the prior data from 9/29/2022, labelled ‘old’ and shown as dotted lines.
• Fig. 1: This chart plots the old cases per week age group as reported by MDH on 9/29/2022 (dotted lines) and the new cases per week as reported on 10/06/2022 (solid lines), for the 5-11 age group. A relatively modest numbers of cases were removed from the unvaccinated group on 1/09/2022, the peak of Omicron, and added to the vaccinated. In addition, starting approximately on 4/03/2022, a handful of cases were moved from the unvaccinated to the vaccinated.
• Fig. 2: This chart displays the case rates per 100k for the 5-11 age group, using both the old data reported on 9/29/2022 and the new data reported on 10/06/2022.  The case rate per 100k for the vaccinated around the 1/09/2022 peak has now been revised to be higher than the case rate for the unvaccinated on this date. In fact, the case rate for the vaccinated is now higher than the case rate for the unvaccinated for the entire first half of 2022 for this age group.
• Fig. 3: This chart displays the proportion of the 5-11 age population who are unvaccinated (solid blue) and vaccinated but not boosted (solid green). For each group we also display the proportion of cases each week (dashed lines of same color). For the first half of 2002 we can see that the vaccinated proportion of cases was higher than the vaccinated proportion of population, meaning that the vaccinated were more likely to test positive than the unvaccinated. Only in recent weeks have the proportion of cases equalized to match the proportion of the vaccinated population, meaning that in the most recent weeks the vaccinated and unvaccinated are equally likely to test positive.
• Fig. 4: This chart shows the raw numbers of Covid hospital admissions per week for the 5-11 age group, with the 9/29/2022 data shown as dotted lines and the 10/06/2022 shown as solid lines. Similar to cases, admissions were removed from the unvaccinated around 1/09/2022 and added to the vaccinated.
• Fig. 5: This chart shows the Covid hospital admission rates per 100k each week for the 5-11 age group. The changes from 9/29/2022 to 10/06/2022 mirror the changes to admissions shown in Fig. 4. Throughout the pandemic the unvaccinated have generally had the highest rate of hospitalization, compared to the vaccinated.             
• Fig. 6: This charts shows that admissions have generally been over-represented among the unvaccinated, since the unvaccinated proportion of admissions (dashed blue line) is most often higher than the unvaccinated proportion of the population (solid blue line). 
• All data is obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Update web site https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html. A data file on this site, vbtadultcirates.xlsx, contains all of the age group data.
• MDH defines the fully vaccinated (what we have termed vaccinated but not boosted) as those who have not received a booster after completing their primary vaccination series, and had been vaccinated at least 14 days prior to testing positive.
• MDH defines the boosted as those who have received any additional vaccination shots after completing their primary vaccination series, and also received the booster at least 14 days prior to testing positive. In addition, booster doses were only counted after 8/13/2021, the date the CDC first began recommending booster shots.