Skip to main content

Breakthrough Events, September 8

By September 9, 2022Commentary

A return to the trend this week, showing that last week was definitely a DOH screwup which they undoubtedly will do nothing to address.

Dave’s notes:

  1. We noted a peculiar spike in unvaccinated cases and hospital admissions in the data released last week on 9/01/2022. This was accompanied by a decrease in vaccinated, and boosted, hospital admissions. In the new data released on 9/08/2022, adding data for the week of 8/14/2022, the cases and hospital admissions have generally returned to the prior trends. We note also that a similar, but slightly smaller, discontinuity in cases for the week of 6/12/2022, and this discontinuity has not been revised in the intervening weeks.
  2. This post is an update to the breakthrough data table and charts published on 9/04/22 here: https://healthy-skeptic.com/2022/09/04/breakthrough-events-september-1/. This week’s update adds data for the week ending 8/14/2022, newly published by the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) on 9/08/2022. As is usual, there are relatively minor updates to prior weeks as well.
  3. The breakthrough data files are available from MDH here, https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html , in the notes under the graphic images.
  4. The charts in Fig. 2 through 10 contain 3 charts for each type of event (cases, admissions, or deaths). The first chart for each type is the number of events each week, illustrating in raw numbers the trend in the pandemic for the overall population, and the impact on society of each sub-group. The second chart is the rate of events per 100k each week, displaying the risk to an individual of the each category at different times during the pandemic. The third chart for each type of event is the proportions of event compared to the proportion of the population type (unvaccinated, vaccinated, or boosted). This chart helps show whether or not vaccination or boosting is effective in reducing the impact of the pandemic, by comparing the proportion of events to the proportion of the population.
  5. Fig. 1: This table displays the total cases, hospital admissions, and deaths that occurred each week among the unvaccinated, vaccinated but not boosted, and vaccinated and boosted populations. The week of 8/14/2022 has been added this week. We note that the spike un unvaccinated cases for the week of 8/7/2022 has now reversed for the week of 8/14/2022, returning to the prior trend. Roughly similar changes can be seen in hospital admissions, where the spike in unvaccinated admissions for the week of 8/07/2022 has mostly, but not quite, returned to the prior trend. The deaths data exhibited no spike in unvaccinated deaths for the week of 8/07/2022.
  6. Fig. 2: This chart simply plots the cases among the unvaccinated, vaccinated but not boosted, and vaccinated and boosted populations each week, as found in Fig. 1. As noted, the sharp spike in unvaccinated cases for the week of 8/07/2022 has now reversed, as well as the cases for the vaccinated and boosted populations. This has the appearance of cases for the week of 8/07/2022 were counted as unvaccinated even though a sizeable proportion of the cases were actually vaccinated or boosted.
  7. Fig. 3: This chart displays the case rates per 100k for each group. We can see a sharp increase in the unvaccinated case rate for the week of 8/07/2022, and now the reversal for the week of 8/14/2022. Note also a similar spike which has not been corrected for the week of 6/12/2022.
  8. Fig. 4: This chart displays the proportion of the 5 and over population who are unvaccinated (solid purple), vaccinated but not boosted (solid blue), and vaccinated and boosted (solid gold). For each population group we also display the proportion of cases each week (dashed lines of same color). The way to interpret this chart is to compare the proportion of breakthroughs to the proportion of vaccinations for each group. Whenever the dashed breakthrough proportion line is below the solid vaccination line of the same color, then that category is underrepresented for population, and when the dashed line is above the solid line of the same color then that category is overrepresented. For the week of 8/14/22 the unvaccinated made up 29% of the overall 5+ population but accounted for 31% of the overall cases. Conversely, the boosted made up 47% of the overall population but accounted for 47% of the cases.
  9. Fig. 5-7: These charts display the hospital admissions, hospital admission rates per 100k, and hospital admissions proportions for the 5+ age group, in an identical format to the case charts in Fig. 2 through Fig. 4. Fig. 5 shows a sharp spike in the number of hospital admissions among the unvaccinated followed by a reduction with week of 8/14/2022, with an opposite negative spike in admissions for the vaccinated and boosted. Fig. 6 shows similar changes in trend among the different groups. Fig. 7 shows that the unvaccinated were over-represented the week of 8/14/2022(purple dashed curve higher than the solid purple curve), while the vaccinated and boosted are under-represented.
  10. Fig. 8-10: These charts display the deaths, deaths rates per 100k, and deaths proportions for the 5+ age group, in an identical format to the case charts in Fig. 2 through Fig. 4. Deaths among the boosted have been declining for several weeks (gold curve), while deaths among the unvaccinated and vaccinated are even lower (Fig. 8). The death rates per 100k are all very low, however the vaccinated and boosted have the highest death rate, likely due to incidental positive cases among the elderly boosted population (Fig. 9). For the week of 8/14/2022, the boosted make up 43% of the overall population but account for 83% of the weekly deaths, while the unvaccinated make up 29% of the population but account for only 17% of the deaths (Fig. 10). Note that because the elderly are highly boosted as an age group that therefore the boosted are over-represented among all deaths.
  11. MDH defines the fully vaccinated (what we have termed vaccinated but not boosted) as those who have not received a booster after completing their primary vaccination series, and had been vaccinated at least 14 days prior to testing positive.
  12. MDH defines the boosted as those who have received any additional vaccination shots after completing their primary vaccination series, and also received the booster at least 14 days prior to testing positive. In addition, booster doses were only counted after 8/13/2021, the date the CDC first began recommending booster shots.

Leave a comment