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Breakthrough Events, July 21, Overall Population

By July 25, 2022Commentary

A reminder that Minnesota now releases data updates only once a week, on Thursday.  Dave has been able to work with the data to continue to deliver most of the charts you were used to seeing.  And he continues to push for the release of information that is necessary to understand epidemic trends in the state and nationally.  The epidemic is now clearly centered in the vaxed and boosted populations, who make up the vast majority of people.  In the most recent reported week, back in June, 74% of cases, 66% of hosps and 75% of deaths were in the vaxed and vaxed and boosted populations.  These are similar to the proportions they represent of the population.  This is a big picture representation of how ineffective the vaccines and boosters are after a few months.  Look in particular at the lack of protection of being vaxed and boosted in regard to hospitalizations.

Dave’s notes:

  1. This post is an update to the breakthrough data table and charts published on 7/20/22 here: This week’s update adds data for the week ending 6/26/2022, newly published by the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) on 7/21/2022. In addition, there are relatively minor updates to prior weeks as well.
  2. The breakthrough data files are available here, , in the notes under the graphic images.
  3. The charts in Fig. 2 through 10 continue 3 charts for each type of event (cases, admissions, or deaths). The first chart for each type is the number of events each week, illustrating in raw numbers the trend on the pandemic for the overall population, and the impact of each sub-group. The second chart is the rate of events per 100k each week, displaying the risk to an individual in each category at different times during the pandemic. The third chart for each type of event is the proportions of event compared to the proportion of the population type (unvaccinated, vaccinated, or boosted). This chart helps show whether or not vaccination or boosting is effective in reducing the impact of the pandemic, by comparing the proportion of events to the proportion of the population.
  4. Fig. 1: This table displays the total cases, hospital admissions, and deaths that occurred each week among the unvaccinated, vaccinated but not boosted, and vaccinated and boosted populations. The week of 6/26/2022 has been added, one additional week compared to last week’s publication. This data is obtained from the data files vbtadultcirates.xlsx and vbtpedocirates.xlsx, available in the notes under the graphics on the MDH Vaccinate Breakthrough Weekly Update web page   The week of 6/26/2022 is very similar to the week of 6/19/2022.
  5. Fig. 2: This chart simply plots the cases among the unvaccinated, vaccinated but not boosted, and vaccinated and boosted populations each week, as found in Fig. 1.  Note that the sharp increase in unvaccinated cases (purple curve) for 6/12/2022 has yet to be revised away, meaning that MDH’s data shows this increase in cases for this week for unknown reasons.
  6. Fig. 3: This chart displays the case rates per 100k for each group. Similar to the cases in Fig. 2, the rates per 100k have returned to trend after the anomalous increase the unvaccinated the week of 6/12/2022. Most importantly, note that the a vaccinated and boosted individual has the highest rate of testing positive for Covid.
  7. Fig. 4: This chart displays the proportion of the 5 and over population who are unvaccinated (solid purple), vaccinated but not boosted (solid blue), and vaccinated and boosted (solid gold). For each population group we also display the proportion of cases each week (dashed lines of same color). The way to interpret this chart is to compare the proportion of breakthroughs to the proportion of vaccinations for each group. Whenever the dashed breakthrough proportion line is below the solid vaccination line of the same color, then that category is underrepresented for population, and when the dashed line is above the solid line of the same color then that category is overrepresented. For the week of 6/26/2022, similar to Fig. 2 and Fig. 3, that the proportions have returned to the prior trend after the 6/12 anomaly.   For 6/26/22 the vaccinated and boosted made up 42% of the overall 5+ population but accounted for 51% of the overall cases. The proportion of boosted cases (gold dashed curve) have been over-represented since 3/6/2022, compared to the proportion of boosted population (solid gold curve).   
  8. Fig. 5-7: These charts display the hospital admissions, hospital admission rates per 100k, and hospital admissions proportions for the 5+ age group, in an identical format to the case charts in Fig. 2 through Fig. 4. Fig. 5 shows that the boosted as a group have the largest number of hospital admissions. Fig. 6 shows that the unvaccinated had the highest rate of hospital admission for the week of 6/26/22, while the vaccinated but not boosted had the lowest rate of admission. Fig. 6 shows that the vaccinated but not boosted are indeed under-represented (blue dashed curve lower than solid blue curve).
  9. Fig. 8-10: These charts display the deaths, deaths rates per 100k, and deaths proportions for the 5+ age group, in an identical format to the case charts in Fig. 2 through Fig. 4. The most significant trend is that the boosted have higher rates of death, although this is undoubtedly due to the higher rates of booster shots among the older, more at risk populations.
  10. MDH defines the fully vaccinated (what we have termed vaccinated but not boosted) as those who have not received a booster after completing their primary vaccination series, and had been vaccinated at least 14 days prior to testing positive.
  11. MDH defines the boosted as those who have received any additional vaccination shots after completing their primary vaccination series, and also received the booster at least 14 days prior to testing positive. In addition, booster doses were only counted after 8/13/2021, the date the CDC first began recommending booster shots.

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