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Breakthrough Events, Ages 5 to 11, June 27

By June 29, 2022Commentary

This is the first age group analysis.  Vaccination makes no sense for this age group, given low risk and high infection rates, and we also see that there is no effectiveness against infection and little to none against hospitalization in this age group.  There are low rates of hospitalization in any event and a large percentage of those in this age group are incidentals.

Let me note again the caveats to DOHs numbers.  Their vaccination status data is incomplete–they don’t pick up a lot of out-of-state or federal vaccinations.  I strongly suspect the effect of this is to make vax look better than it is.  They don’t account for prior infections.  I don’t know which way this cuts, but it is absurd for DOH to continue to refuse to show this in the breakthrough data.  It is critical information which DOH has in its possession.

Dave’s notes:

  1. The following charts illustrate, for the 5-11 year old age group, that being vaccinated leads to higher rates of testing positive for Covid in the most recent weeks’ data available, but the vaccinated have a lower rate of hospital admissions with Covid. The Minnesota Department of Health does not publish breakthrough death data or booster data for the 5-11 age group.
  2. This post is an update of the breakthrough charts for the 5-11 age group most recently published here: .
  3. There are 6 charts in this set, 3 charts each for cases and hospital admissions. Each set of 3 charts consists of the actual events per week (cases or admissions); the rate per 100k each week, and the proportion of events compared to the proportion of the vaccinated or unvaccinated population.
  4. Fig. 1: This chart plots the cases in the 5-11 age group per week among the unvaccinated and vaccinated but not boosted populations each week. Since the week of 3/20/2022 there have been more cases each week among the vaccinated than among the unvaccinated, although in the last several weeks the number of cases has converged.
  5. Fig. 2: This chart displays the case rates per 100k for each subgroup in the 5-11 age group. The vaccinated case rate equals or exceeds the unvaccinated case rate each week since 12/26/2021.
  6. Fig. 3: This chart displays the proportion of the 5-11 population who are unvaccinated (solid blue) and vaccinated but not boosted (solid green). For each population group we also display the proportion of cases each week (dashed lines of same color). The way to interpret this chart is to compare the proportion of breakthroughs to the proportion of vaccinations for each group. Whenever the dashed breakthrough proportion line is below the solid vaccination line of the same color, then that category is underrepresented for population, and vaccination status might be said to be beneficial. For the week of 5/05/2022, for example (the farthest right side of the chart), 38% of this age group was vaccinated (solid green line) while this group accounted for 49% of the cases (dashed green line). We would interpret this to show that being vaccinated did not reduce an individual’s chances of testing positive for Covid for that week. At no point in the pandemic (except the first several weeks of vaccination) does vaccination show a material benefit for testing positive for Covid for this age group.
  7. Fig. 4-6: These charts display the hospital admissions, hospital admission rates per 100k, and hospital admissions proportions for the 5-11 age group, in an identical format to the case charts in Fig. 1 through Fig. 3. The vaccinated have made up the lower number of admissions throughout the pandemic but have a higher number of admissions than the unvaccinated the week of 6/05/2022 (Fig. 4). The admissions per 100k for the vaccinated than for the unvaccinated the week of 6/05/2022  (Fig. 5). Fig. 6 shows that admissions among the unvaccinated have generally been disproportionately high throughout the pandemic, but the very small number of admissions make the data quite choppy.
  8. All data is obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Update web site A data file on this site, vbtpedscirates.xlsx, contains all of the age group data.
  9. MDH defines the fully vaccinated (what we have termed vaccinated but not boosted) as those who have not received a booster after completing their primary vaccination series, and had been vaccinated at least 14 days prior to testing positive.

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