As promised the full set of tables and charts. One table just shows what is reported each week, the other table shows events by the week they occurred. You will note the significant lag in the second table, due to DOH processing times. Over 45,000 cases, 800 hosps and 150 deaths in the vaxed reported this week. First table just shows what DOH reports each week and mostly indicates how processing flops around. The second table gives events by week and shows the proportion. As I keep saying, by now we are well past the majority of reported events being in the vaxed. And look at the chart for the over-65 age group, all events are already now majority in the vaxed. Usual caveats about incomplete identification about who is vaxed and lack of identification of the prior infected. Dave Dixon’s notes:
- The table and charts are updated for new data released by Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) on 1/31/2022, adding data for the week starting 1/02/2022. This week was nearing the peak of the Omicron surge, which occurred in Minnesota on 1/10/2022.
- The data source for the data on Fig. 1 is the cumulative breakthrough cases, hospitalizations, and deaths published on the MDH COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Update https://www.health.state.mn.
- The data source for Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 is the data file https://www.health.state.mn.
us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/ vbtcounts.xlsx found on MDH web page https://www.health.state.mn. us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/ vbt.html. The data provided in the data file vbtcounts.xlsx is used without modification, other than to sum the weekly events and compute the breakthrough proportion. Vbtcounts.xlsx provides breakthrough and non-breakthrough cases, hospital admissions, and deaths for each week listed.
- The data source for the breakthrough proportions by age group (Fig. 4 through Fig. 7) is the data file vbtcirates.xlsx, found on the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) web page: https://www.health.state.mn.
us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/ vbtcirates.xlsx . This data file gives the rates per 100k of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in full vaccinated and not fully vaccinated people, broken out by age group.
- The rates per 100k in vbtcirates.xlsx are converted into cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by multiplying by the appropriate population. The number of vaccinated people by age group can found on the Vaccine Data page, https://mn.gov/covid19/
vaccine/data/index.jsp , in the data file People Vaccinated by Age. The unvaccinated population is found by taking the US Census American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate (Data Table S0101, https://data.census.gov/ cedsci/table) and subtracting the vaccinated population. The breakthrough proportion is then found by dividing the breakthrough events by the total of the breakthrough and non-breakthrough weekly events.
- MDH defines a breakthrough event as a Covid case, hospital admission, or death that occurs 14 or more days after completing the vaccination shots (not including boosters).
- Fig 1: New breakthrough cases announced on 1/02/2022 total 45,127, just below last week’s record high in breakthrough cases. The newly reported breakthrough hospitalizations of 829 were a new record high, as well as the 152 breakthrough deaths.
- Fig. 2 and Fig. 3, Overall Breakthrough Proportions: Breakthrough cases surged to the highest level seen, at 62.8% of total cases for the week starting 1/02/2022, just greater than the prior week’s percentage of 62.7%. The proportion of breakthrough hospitalizations rose 44.6% of all hospitalizations, while breakthrough deaths rose to 49.0% of the total weekly deaths. When looking at past weeks data we can see that there have been many revisions to breakthrough and non-breakthrough deaths in this week data file. For example, fully vaccinated deaths for the week of 5/02/2021 rose from 8 to 10, for the week of 6/13/2021 rose from 0 to 3, and for the week of 6/20/2021 rose from 0 to 1, among many other revisions. In total 30 fully vaccinated deaths were added prior to the week of 11/07/2021.
- Fig. 4 through Fig. 7: Breakthrough Proportions by Age Group: The breakthrough proportion of cases in each age group were close to unchanged over the prior week as breakthrough proportions of hospitalizations and deaths continue to increase in each age group. By comparing these charts to the versions published last week here https://healthy-skeptic.com/
2022/02/01/breakthrough- events-january-31/the detail changes to prior weeks, especially in the death rates for the 50+64 and 65+ age groups, can be seen.