Below are the three charts from my active cases update. Had to do a little bridging formula for a day because the state skipped reporting on Thanksgiving, so we got no separate persons no longer isolating or total death numbers for those days. I also have realized that this analysis is overstating active cases, because the cases by date of specimen collection table gets updated every day, with major changes for a week to ten days, and dribs and drabs going back months. For example, August 1, the first day in this analysis, is still getting cases added. But the no longer isolating number, which is based on the rolloff of cases after around 10 days, does not have a table and does not get updated. If it did, the cases that are added to the case table 10 days or more ago would get added to the roll-off for the no-longer needing isolation number, reducing active cases.
Ignore the last week to ten days, too many cases still being added from late reported test results based on specimens from those days. You can still see the pattern, especially on the daily percent change slide. Active case increases slowed in early November and are now declining and will go negative for a while. I don’t think this is a trough; this is the end of this wave, and we will settle down to a long tail again.