Another large benefit consultant weighs in on 2027 medical costs, with Mercer predicting a trend of 8.2%, the fastest growth in over 20 years. The Mercer number is based on a survey of employers. The cost would be higher, around 11% but the employers told Mercer they will be taking steps to lower it. That usually means making employees pay more so they skip care. For 2026 the respondents said cost increases were around 6.7%. For the last three years, cost increases have been well above general inflation. The usual suspects are blamed–provider consolidation, expensive new treatments, cost-shifting from government payers. Newer causes include weight loss drug use, artificial intelligence software helping providers make up more services to bill for and the No Surprises Act absurd awards to out-of-network providers (these providers should never be given more than they would receive if in-network). It is pretty apparent from all sources that 2027 will be another year of hefty health care cost increases unless drastic action is taken quickly, and it could be if there was the political will. In the meantime, both employers and employees will continue to pay more. (Mercer Release)
