After a somewhat optimistic JOLTS report earlier this week, today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the employment data for June and it was well below expectations, but these reports seem to have a high degree of uncertainty. According to BLS based on the business survey, 57,000 jobs were added in June, and April and May’s numbers were revised downward by 74,000 jobs. And the household survey somehow showed that the number of employed persons dropped by over 500,000; creating another gap between the two surveys. BLS really has to address its methodology, these surveys are too important to have issues about accuracy constantly arising.
The work participation rate declined, driven by a drop in the civilian labor force, which also led to a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. Full time workers also supposedly declined by over 500,000. I continue to suspect some of what we are told about the number of employed persons and full-time jobs relates to the removal of illegal immigrants. This is supported by data showing a drop in the number of foreign-born workers. Social assistance, health care and business and professional services displayed job gains, there was a job loss in leisure and hospitality, which is highly seasonal. Hourly wages increased at a pace slightly above inflation, which is a positive. At the same time, we get data, which is more accurate, showing no increase in unemployment claim filings. (BLS Release)
