Another Puzzling Jobs Report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December jobs report today, based as usual on two surveys, one of businesses and one of households.  The number of jobs added was 256,000, far above expectations.  October and November were revised a combined 8000 jobs lower.  It could be that in the wake of Trump’s election businesses are feeling more optimistic, they certainly won’t be villainized like they were by Biden, and they are hiring in advance of an expected economic pickup.  The household survey reported a 478,000 increase in people working, lessening the gap with the business survey.  The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.1%.

The labor force participation rate, basically the percent of adults who could work that actually are working, was 62.5%.  The is actually a key statistic and reflects a huge number of slackers who live off of multiple government handouts.  Getting more people to work would massively help reduce the US deficit and improve economic growth.  Workers pay taxes and they aren’t living on government benefit programs.  The Social Security disability program is a particular source of abuse.   (BLS Release)

Unfortunately, much of the job growth appears to be in government, 33,000, or government supported sectors–health care at 46,000 and social assistance at 23,000.  Retailers added 43,000 jobs. One not so pleasant effect of the jobs report was an immediate tick up in US debt yields, with the 30 year bond now hovering around 5%.  No more rate-cutting from the Fed and higher interest rates all year is my prediction.