What I Fear for Trump

I breathed a huge sigh of relief when it became apparent Trump would win, or more accurately, that we wouldn’t have four more years of whacked Dem rule.  Trump I have always viewed as unsuitable to be President, incapable of reining in his ego long enough to focus on ensuring that he gets the policies he espouses enacted and implemented.  But I admire his courage and perseverance and was hopeful he had truly learned to sublimate his worst instincts in the interest of getting real change in policies.  Apparently he hasn’t.  Let me remind people of the macro-political situation.  People say Trump won a landslide, but when all the votes are counted he will have barely 50% of the vote, if that.  Contrast this to Reagan-Mondale.  He had no ability to get Republicans elected to Congress.  Senatorial and House candidates underperformed his vote, indicating large numbers of people who split their tickets or just didn’t vote down-ballot.  And most importantly, Trump is a lame duck, he won’t be running again.

Unlike Trump, Rep Senators and House members will be running again and they want to stay in office.  They can count votes too and know that Trump has little ability to influence their elections, and Trump needs them more than they need him.  They will be quick to distance themselves from him if they believe it affects their self-preservation.  So don’t expect them to bend over backwards to get nominees they find questionable confirmed.  And don’t waste time on the recess appointment nonsense either, it isn’t going to happen.   Trump is wasting time getting people into place and is creating a distraction that benefits Democrats and gives them hope that he will self-immolate once again.  And if he creates ill will with just a few Rep House members or Senators it can affect anything he wants implemented in legislation.  So not a smart move at all to let the focus be on this instead of the border and the economy.

My other fear, which I have mentioned before, is that Trump is being left an economy with rotten underpinnings, particularly the level of debt. More tax cuts, unless accompanied by truly substantial cuts in federal spending, which I would love to see, won’t help.  The debt is a boulder moving inexorably downhill, crushing everything in its path.  It will keep interest rates high and crowd out private investment.  It will limit the ability to spend where we really need to–better defense, in particular.  The American people have a very short time horizon, if they don’t perceive things are getting better quickly, you will start seeing very negative approval ratings for Trump.  He has a very, very short window to try to chart a very narrow and difficult path among all the economic obstacles he was left with.  I wish him the best, but am fearful that the likelihood of success is low and I can’t abide the thought of going back to Dems in charge.