Another huge auction yesterday for US debt, $58 billion in three-year notes. The size of these auctions is essentially unprecedented and it will only grow as the deficit roles on and the total debt gets bigger and bigger and more debt has to be rolled over. Consistent with the concerns about the ability of buyers to absorb so much debt, this was a terrible auction. The high yield was above the projected, at 4.69% versus 4.50% for a similar auction just a month ago. Demand characteristics were also weak in terms of bids placed to size of auction and types of bidders. As the summer wears on, my expectation is that these auctions will stay weak, and sooner or later one will be disastrous. (ZH Post)
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One of the downsides of threatening sanctions on so many countries is you push potential buyers out of the market. And with so many “Allies” pushing support onto Ukraine they have to buy their domestic bonds before finding spare change to buy foreign ones.
Russia and Iran have never been big buyers of US bonds, in fact are often barred from buying. The big purchasers are Japan, European countries and China and their buying is typically tied to trade, currency and other issues. it isn’t that they are buying less, it is that there is so much more supply that demand can’t keep up