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A Quick Hit on Federal Debt

By February 4, 2024Commentary

Very few people understand how bad the US federal debt problem is, and those that do are trying their best to ignore the consequences.  Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, and others keep talking about interest rates as an inflation-linked issue, but it is all about supply and demand now.  In addition to the new debt issuance needed to fund an estimated $2 trillion dollar deficit for fiscal 2024, $8.9 trillion of current federal debt matures in 2024 and will have to be rolled over.  This is a result of a short-sighted focus on issuing short-term debt when rates were extremely low, instead of longer-term debt that also had relatively low rates.  The rollover of this debt will add hundreds of billions to the annual interest expense bill.  Here is a ZH post on the topic.  (ZH Post)

And here is a basic presentation on federal debt that every American should read.  Read it and weep.  Foreign governments are net sellers of US debt, they are pretty smart.  Households have picked up some of the slack, but will only do so as long as rates remain high.  The supply is bigger than dealers in US debt’s ability to handle it.  The pain is already here and it is going to get much more intense.  High interest rates, high inflation, low growth.  (Apollo Presentation)

Join the discussion One Comment

  • Hello Kevin,

    I am a regular reader but I disagree on some of what you say about the debt.

    My thoughts can be found at They were too long to be posted as comments.

    Milton Friedman wrote and op-ed that I read years ago (cannot find a copy) about why paper is better than gold. I am working on another post for my blog describing what I remember. I am old so I only remember my memories.

    I live in The Villages, Florida and you have my e-mail so if you would like to talk I would welcome it. I am not a good writer, like you are, so I would appreciate any help you can give me to clarify my thoughts.

    Thank You

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