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We Are Going to Have High Interest Rates for a Very Long Time

By August 1, 2023Commentary

Check out the chart of the ten year Treasury note found here:  (Yahoo Fin. 10 yr. chart)    Do at least a one year view or better yet, five years.  As you can see this piece of federal debt is reaching past-year highs, which were much higher than in the past five years.  If you look at the Max version of the chart, you have to go back to 2004 to find rates this high.  The federal government is set to issue $1 trillion in new debt during the rest of summer alone, because the deficit is far higher than projected.  People aren’t eager to buy that much new debt unless the interest rate on it is quite high.  So we are going to have high interest rates for a long time, and those rates ripple through the entire economy.  They also add to the federal deficit.  Welcome to pro(re)gressive economics, where excessive spending has no consequences.  Right.  We are at the end of a long period of very low rates and into an era in which interest rates are going to be very high, for a very long time, crimping economic growth and standards of living.

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  • Arne says:

    If you follow the rubric of risk and return being intertwined, you’d expect people to look at our climbing debt levels and demand higher interest rates to compensate for our increasing fiscal lack of discipline.

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