Actuaries face an intense process to become certified to do their work, which basically involves understanding cost trends well enough to help insurance companies set premiums for coming periods. Health insurance requires actuaries and they don’t have an easy job trying to understand unit price and utilization trends. A new report from the American Academy of Actuaries attempts to assess health premiums for 2024. The report finds that health insurance is still adjusting to the post-epidemic world, in which the government will be providing less direct payment for CV-19 services and many people will lose Medicaid coverage. The report also identifies inflation-related cost pressures on providers as leading to likely significant increases in provider rates, which will in turn lead to higher premiums.
The federal government tracks health insurance premiums in a bizarre manner that hugely underestimates actual increases, which in turn gives a false picture on overall inflation. The price of health care services and health insurance is rising rapidly in reality and those price increases affect almost every American. Sooner or later they will show up in the official inflation figures as well. Health care isn’t getting cheaper any time soon. (AAA Report)