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The Ongoing Saga of Goofy Employment Numbers

By July 7, 2023Commentary

In several posts over the last few months I have discussed the employment numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  You can find the details at the BLS website, but the website ZeroHedge always has an excellent analysis that tells you more than BLS will about the revisions and the methodological issues.  The numbers released today, the initial look at June employment, are the first time in a year that the numbers have been below expectations in terms of jobs added about 210,000, the lowest since December 2020.  And there were significant downward revisions to prior months, including a 33,000 reduction to the original May numbers and a 77,000 reduction for April.  Every month in 2023 has now been revised lower, which gives you a lot of confidence in the original releases and does nothing to alleviate concerns of political shenanigans.  A lot of people still don’t see any reason to work, so the unemployment rate stayed the same.  Hourly earnings rose more than expected, which will keep inflation pressures up.  And government is responsible for much of the new jobs that were reported, which isn’t good for the nation’s fiscal health.   Low survey response rates continue, which is a methodological concern.     (ZH Post)

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  • JT says:

    Bottom line … there are roughly 200MM working aged people in the country and there are roughly 100MM not in the work force. To your point, people have given up being part of the rat-race.

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