I should have waited another day for my post yesterday on the federal games-playing with labor stats. Today’s report covering January was the best whopper yet. On the surface it looked like an unbelievable beat of expectations and a reflection of a very strong labor market. President Biden immediately bragged on it, which is the whole reason the Bureau of Labor Statistics exists at this point–put out numbers to make Dem presidents look good. Here is the truth behind the report. All the supposed massive job gains were due to an exceptional set of “seasonal adjustments”, made every year in January, but the size of this year’s were over 3 million jobs, far greater than in any prior year. Apparently whatever it takes is the motto of the day at BLS.
And for the last year, what is really happening with jobs? There were essentially zero new full-time jobs, actually a slight decline, but part-time jobs grew a miraculous 1.5 million. So the headline is a lie, period, and the truth is that somewhere in the bowels of BLS, fake jobs are made up and spit (or shit) out in whatever ways will help Biden claim he has a good economy. The bad news for him is that Bureau is basically out of tricks and future months are going to look terrible, which is consistent with all the layoffs we know are happening. (ZH Post)
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I haven’t seen you comment yet on Cochrane review of masks. Maybe I missed it?