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Breakthrough Events, 11/17, Ages 18 to 49

By November 20, 2022Commentary

This is a large age group, which DOH should break out more.  We see that for months, there has been no effectiveness against infection from vax or boosting, and very small benefits against hospitalization.

Dave’s notes:

  1. The following charts show how vaccination status affects the risk of testing positive, being hospitalized, or dying of Covid for the 18-49 age group. Currently, vaccination status does not seem to have a major impact on testing positive, while the unvaccinated have a higher chance of being hospitalized. There were very few deaths classified as Covid in this age group for any vaccination status in recent months.
  2. This post is an update to the chart set for the 18-49 age group most recently published on 10/31/2022 here:
  3. There are 9 charts in this set, 3 charts each for cases, hospital admissions, and deaths. Each set of 3 charts consists of the actual events per week (cases, admissions, or deaths); the rate per 100k each week, and the proportion of events compared to the proportion of the vaccinated population.
  4. Fig. 1: This chart plots the cases in the 18-49 age group per week among the unvaccinated, vaccinated but not boosted, and vaccinated and boosted populations each week. Since the week of 3/13/2022 there have been more cases each week among the boosted, rather than among the vaccinated but not boosted, or the unvaccinated. This is due to the boosted sub-group being the largest for this age group.
  5. Fig. 2: This chart displays the case rates per 100k for each subgroup in the 18-49 age group. The boosted have had a slightly higher case rate than the unvaccinated for most of 2022, although in recent weeks it appears that the three sub-groups are converging to the same case rate per 100k. The vaccinated but not boosted have consistently had the lowest case rate of the three subgroups for most of 2022.
  6. Fig. 3: This chart displays the proportion of the 18-49 population who are unvaccinated (solid purple), vaccinated but not boosted (solid blue), and vaccinated and boosted (solid gold). For each population group we also display the proportion of cases each week (dashed lines of same color). For the week of 10/23/2022, the most recent data we have, 39% of this age group was vaccinated and boosted (solid gold line) and this group accounted for 39% of the cases (dashed gold line). We would interpret this to show that being boosted did not reduce an individual’s chances of testing positive for Covid for that week. Also for the week of 10/23/2022, the vaccinated but not boosted (solid blue line) made up 31% of the population of this age group, but accounted for only 24% of the cases for that age group, while the unvaccinated made up 31% of the population (solid purple line) but accounted for 37% of the cases (dashed purple line).  
  7. Fig. 4-6: These charts display the hospital admissions, hospital admission rates per 100k, and hospital admissions proportions for the 18-49 age group, in an identical format to the case charts in Fig. 1 through Fig. 3. The unvaccinated have had the highest number of admissions throughout the pandemic, although in recent weeks the admission rates of the unvaccinated have been much closer to the rates to the other subgroups, and declining. (Fig. 4). The admissions per 100k for the unvaccinated are highest throughout the pandemic, and although the unvaccinated admission rates were lower for the week of 10/23/2022, they were still nearly double the rates of the other sub-groups (Fig. 5). Fig. 6 shows that admissions among the unvaccinated have been disproportionately high throughout the pandemic. For the week of 10/23/2022 the unvaccinated made up 31% of the age group but accounted for 51% of the admissions. The boosted made up 39% of the age group but only accounted for 29% of the admissions.  
  8. Fig. 7-9: These charts display the deaths, deaths rates per 100k, and deaths proportions for the 18-49 age group, in an identical format to the case charts in Fig. 1 through Fig. 3. The unvaccinated had the greatest number of deaths by far during the Omicron wave in late 2021/early 2022, but in recent months there are very few deaths in any of the subgroups (Fig. 7). Fig. 8 shows that the rates of death per 100k for each subgroup is very low in the most recent months of data, matching Fig. 7. Fig. 9 shows that deaths proportions are highly variable, and that deaths among the unvaccinated are over-represented through much of the pandemic. Throughout much of 2022 there are so few Covid deaths in this age group that it is difficult to draw any conclusions.
  9. All data is obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Update web site A data file on this site, vbtadultcirates.xlsx, contains all of the age group data.
  10. MDH defines the fully vaccinated (what we have termed vaccinated but not boosted) as those who have not received a booster after completing their primary vaccination series, and had been vaccinated at least 14 days prior to testing positive.
  11. MDH defines the boosted as those who have received any additional vaccination shots after completing their primary vaccination series, and also received the booster at least 14 days prior to testing positive. In addition, booster doses were only counted after 8/13/2021, the date the CDC first began recommending booster shots.

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