Year-Over-Year Charts, September 15

Always good to look at the long-term chart of events and see how one year may vary from another, keeping in mind that home testing and incidental hosps in particular have screwed up seeing those trends accurately.

Dave’s notes:

1. Fig. 1: New Daily Covid Cases: New daily cases have finally started to decline since the middle of August. With the availability of home Covid tests it is very likely that the cases in the summer of 2022 were actually substantially higher, since home test positives are not in the official Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) data. However, 2020 and 2021 were likely higher as well since asymptomatic or minor Covid cases may never have been tested at all. Will we see a rise of cases toward the end of 2022, similar to the past years, even though we have high levels of vaccination and of previous infection? It seems likely that this is possible given the prevalence of breakthrough infections and reinfections in 2022.
2. Fig. 2: Estimated Active Covid Cases: We are simply showing the number of people who test positive in a 10 day period as an estimate for how many people may be actively infected at any one time, since MDH stopped reporting the number of people No Longer Needing Isolation.
3. Fig. 3: Covid ICU Admissions: Average daily Covid ICU admissions have been in a band between 5 and 10 admissions per day since early May. Despite new cases finally starting to decline ICU admissions have yet to decrease.
4. Fig. 4: Covid Non-ICU Admissions: Average daily Covid Non-ICU admissions have been remarkably consistent, having been in a band between 50 and 70 admissions per day since early May. It is possible that the recent reduction in the Non-ICU admissions are due to the reduction in new Covid cases.
5. Fig. 5: Covid ICU Beds in Use: Covid ICU beds in use have also been remarkably consistent, between 30 and 50 beds in use since early May, with no sign yet of a decline in beds in use as new cases decline.
6. Fig. 6: Covid Non-ICU Beds in Use: Non-ICU Covid hospital beds in use remain quite elevated despite the drop in Covid cases the last few weeks. Cases in 2022 are now almost exactly equal to cases at this time in 2020, yet non-ICU beds in use now are roughly double the beds in use at this time in 2020.
7. Fig. 7: Covid Deaths: Deaths attributed to Covid have decreased slightly after reaching a recent high point in August, but reporting lags make it difficult to know if the recent decline will end up being revised higher.
8. All data is taken from data files available on various pages of the MDH Situation Update for COVID-19 web page https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/index.html.
9. All data is shown as 7 day running averages.