Coronamonomania Lives Forever, Part 170

Alex Berenson leads the charge of false innuendo about vax causing excess deaths, especially in young people and usually by heart disease.  Alex is statistically illiterate and makes these sensationalistic claims because at this point he makes a living selling books on the epidemic.  You can’t figure out anything about excess deaths if you don’t pay attention to pre-existing trends.  This research looked at deaths by heart failure among people aged 15 to 44 in the period 1999 to 2019, so before the epidemic.  The rate of deaths in this group increased by over 40% in that period, almost all in the second part of the period.  Why?  It likely is obesity and other health issues related to diet and exercise.  So if you don’t take the underlying trend into account in any analysis of deaths, you are going to make mistakes.  (JAMA Article)

And speaking of excess deaths, this study using the VA population found that even in that supposedly comprehensive health care system, the epidemic was associated a similar rise in and level of all-cause deaths to that found outside the VA system.  According to this analysis about 85% of the excess deaths were related to CV-19, which we know is an over-estimate based on the extremely broad attribution of deaths to CV-19.    (Medrxiv Paper)

Another study that states the obvious–terrorizing people and locking them down leads to worse mental health.  (Medrxiv Paper)

This research from South Africa indicates that in regard to Omicron, even boosting does not prevent a lessening of effectiveness against hospitalization from CV-19 within four months.  By that point effectiveness was 50% or less, which is helpful, but suggests further lessening is likely.  (NEJM Article)

Antibody tests can be important in determining who may have had a CV-19 infection but isn’t in the stats because they didn’t have an official test.  But this study indicates wide variability in the accuracy of these tests.  (Medrxiv Paper)

Another piece of research focussing on antibody responses in the mucus tissues of the upper respiratory tract.  It looked at triple vaxed persons who either did or didn’t have a prior infection.  In general, these persons had a good response against Omicron, with those with a prior infection having a somewhat better response.  But the levels are low enough to explain why breakthrough infections remain very common.  (NEJM Article)

This study comes from England and examines the efficacy of vaccines in limiting serious disease in hospitalized patients.  There was better effectiveness against Delta-caused hospitalization with serious disease than against Omicron ones.  But in neither case was effectiveness much more than 50% against various indicators of serious disease, like length of stay.  And I would anticipate a further lessening over time from vax.    (SSRN Study)