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More on Excess Deaths

By September 9, 2022Commentary

I mentioned the charts derived from the CDC deaths database which show excess deaths by cause for the US and each state.  I have published these several times before because they clearly show that people are dying because of the lockdowns and the terror campaign and will keep dying from it for years.  Below are the current charts derived from that database.  PLEASE NOTE THESE ARE NOT CV-19 DEATHS, although it is possible that some of the people could have had missed infections.  These are excess deaths that do not have CV-19 on the death certificate.  They are sorted by primary cause.

In health care we have what are referred to as “ambulatory care sensitive conditions”.  That means if someone gets regular routine care for the disease or condition, they should not experience acute exacerbations that result in hospitalizations or death.  This includes diseases like diabetes, hypertension, heart disease.  Going to the ER or urgent care when one is experiencing symptoms, like chest pain, light headedness, failing asleep, of these diseases is also important to avoid bad outcomes.  There are other conditions, cancer being the most notorious, for which early diagnosis is critically linked to a good prognosis.  Early diagnosis requires regular screening and doctor visits.   Now look at both the US and the Minnesota chart–what do you see.

You see the effects of the national and state terror campaigns which kept people away from health care for fear of getting CV-19.  Little Timmy Walz and Jan Malcolm never missed an opportunity to terrorize people into staying in their basements and avoiding all human contact, including for necessary health care.  And the EHR and claims data show that people missed all kinds of needed care, including cancer screenings, diabetes, heart disease and other routine care.  And their disease got worse and some of them died.  And more of these people died at home, because they didn’t go to the ER with that chest pain.

And there on that chart is the evidence–diabetes, heart disease and hypertension all had significant excess deaths nationally and in Minnesota.  So did cancer, which was higher than the national rate in Minnesota–because Little Timmy’s terror campaign was particularly egregious and effective.   Now let’s talk about the other big excess death category–dementias.  Do you recall Little Timmy ordering that no one could visit nursing home residents.  That is a lot of dementia patients.  And the lack of any social contact literally killed them.  It is euphemistically called “failure to thrive” but it means they gave up because no one cared about them.

I said this in the last post on excess deaths and I mean it–every one of these deaths and those to come in future years are the direct responsibility of Walz and Malcolm.  They ignored, consciously and intentionally, the broader public health in their haste to minimize CV-19 deaths for which they might be criticized.  Dave points out below that the excess deaths not due to CV-19 are already a significant percent of the CV-19 deaths.  I have said forever that the response to CV-19 was going to kill at least as many people as CV-19 and within a couple of years it will have.  If we counted CV-19 deaths correctly, there already would be as many terror campaign deaths.  Remember this when you see Walz’ lying ads about his great epidemic response.

And Alex Berenson et al should stop their lying about excess deaths being linked to the vaccines–when you look at it by cause, it is absolutely clear what caused these deaths.

Dave’s notes:

  • The CDC publishes a data dashboard displaying what they call “Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19”, here: This dashboard also allows us to select for causes of death which do not have a COVID-19 diagnosis. It is important to note that this data on excess deaths is only an estimate, and there is a lengthy description and of the methodology and its limitations on the CDC web site. For our charts, we selected the twelfth dashboard, “Total number above average by cause”, and then plotted for both the United States and for Minnesota.
  • Fig. 1 is the CDC estimate for non-Covid excess deaths by cause in Minnesota since the start of the pandemic, 2/1/2020. The total number of non-Covid excess deaths is 7,230. In comparison, the total Covid death toll, according to the Minnesota Department of Health, is 13,117 (available here: The non-Covid death toll is a significant fraction (55.1%) of the Covid death toll, and deserved much more effort from the state government and health authorities.
  • Fig. 2 is the CDC estimate for non-Covid excess deaths by cause in the entire US, also since 2/1/2020. The total non-Covid excess deaths is 399,312. The total US Covid deaths according to the CDC is 1,043,171 (available here: The ratio of non-Covid to Covid excess deaths for the US is 38.3%, quite a bit lower than the Minnesota proportion. However, we do not know if all states are consistent in how Covid deaths are assigned, and we do not know if all states have roughly equal non-Covid excess deaths on a per capita basis.


Join the discussion 32 Comments

  • Daniel Ronald Riser says:

    Even after the brunt of the covid lies it happened to me. North Memorial management almost shut down my heart surgery because of the we have no beds lie. They had beds but didnt have staff because they let them go because everything was non essential per the bully tyrants policies. The surgery was essential or I would have been a statistic you are reporting. Tim walz is what happens when your heart is so darkened and hardened by feeling good about murdering babies in the womb, the life of others has no worth. He is a bully that picks on the weak and vulnerable like all the deaths in assisted livings caused by his so called scientific policies. The weaker and the more vulnerable have targets on their backs.

  • Fred4D says:

    I have many of the chronic diseases on your list. Thankfully I was able to make all my appointments on schedule for the various doctors I receive care from. Only one was tele-doc, but that was mostly just a how are you doing visit. Sometimes the staff was dressed like actors in a virus disaster movie but that has eased a lot since and several of my medical providers are not requiring masks anymore.

  • joe Kosanda says:

    399k excess deaths / 2.5 years is approx 156k excess deaths per year
    Annual US deaths (pre covid ) are approx 2.85m-2.9m

    156k / 2.85m = approx 6% excess deaths – that number is huge

  • joe Kosanda says:

    In somewhat similar vain as delayed health care –

    Almost all orthopedic surgeries require extensive rehab – Shoulder surgery, rotator cuff, Knee surgery, ACL repair etc. Without proper rehab and timely rehab, very good surgeries will still result in bad outcomes.

    In my case, I had shoulder surgery in Nov 2019. The rehab clinics had to shut down in March 2020. Fortunately, I was at the tail end of the critical portion of my rehab, so I still had good outcome. Though most of those orthopedic surgeries that occurred between Mid december 2019 through March 2020 likely had very bad outcomes due to the lack of timely rehab

  • Matt says:

    I appreciate wanting to be skeptical of ‘anti vax’ theories around excess deaths, but I am very concerned about exactly who is dying at the highest excess rates, namely age 30-44… i have trouble believing that’s an age group highly sensitive to missed cancer diagnoses, heart disease mgmt, etc. And to say well they all got covid and months later it killed them, and that just so happened to coincidentally occur right after mass vaccination doesn’t sit well with me either.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      it is not true that that age group has the highest rate of excess deaths, and excess deaths in that age group are largely reflective of drug overdoses, which has been true for years. Insurance data without cause of death data tells you nothing.

  • Dan Schnittker says:

    I don’t know what Berenson claims about deaths caused by the ClotShot versus other causes. What do you say, Mr. Roche about the DeathJabs lethality and general pathologic nature? And is the data you cite reliable concerning harm caused by poison injections? What haven’t they lied about?

    • Kevin Roche says:

      I don’t respond to made up conspiratorial crap with not one shred of evidence. So believe whatever lies you want to believe if it makes you feel good but don’t pretend like you have the slightest clue what you are talking about.

  • Fred says:

    Most doctors and hospital administrators, even those willing to give advice, are data-phobic. By April 2020 it was clear that this was a disease, in nearly every case, proven to be fatal to only those already at death’s door step.

    The fear mongering and kowtowing to the CDC has solidified my distain for the healthcare industrial complex in the USA.

    I take a lot of time researching/interviewing doctors before I trust a word they say. Only one had a clue as to what actually went on during the PFE clinical trails. The one that did told me I could get it but did not need to and it was doubtful it would do any good. No, the PFE vaxxine was NOT 96% effective. That is a made up number.

    Somebody needs to demand data from the government listing which FDA,CDC,NIH employees get paid by pharma on royalties they individually hold. Kevin?

    • Kevin Roche says:

      well, and I got caught on this, the Pfizer vaccine was over 90% effective in the trials against infection, but that turned out to be because the follow-up period for the trials was necessarily short, as soon as we hit the 4 to 6 month after dosing mark, it became apparent that effectiveness against infection declined rapidly.

  • Dan Schnittker says:

    I’m glad you’re pissed off. I remember your milder days. Dr. Peter McCullough is one of my sources concerning “vaccine” harm. As is Dr. Peter Breggin, who has devoted much of his long career to exposing the wrongs committed for profit by the medical and drug industries. Are they “conspiratorial crap”? I would love to be wrong.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      yes they are if they don’t come with actual data and they can’t because it isn’t there

  • joe Kosanda says:

    In response to Matt and the excess death in the 35-44 age group – With the caveat that I have not studied the data, the most likely explanation is that the historical death rate in that age groups is very small and therefore any small change makes a huge % difference.

  • Dan Schnittker says:

    Sorry to belabor my point. I encourage you to give Dr. McCullough a good hearing. What is your take on “vaccine” harm, e.g. as shown by VAERS and U.S. military data?

    • Kevin Roche says:

      terribly sorry but McCullough is an idiot as anyone who looks at his past can see. I have beaten the VAERs idiocy to death and the US military data is also made up crap. Sorry, not catering to those who want to “believe” as opposed to “know”.

  • Lawrence L says:

    Yep, all the excess deaths in the age group 18-45 are no doubt hypertension, Alzheimer’s and dementia, diabetes, etc. And, of course, the excess 1-11 year-old deaths are due to drug overdoes, suicide, and other deaths of despair. And the 1,223 post-vaccine deaths in the first 90 days of the vax regime in 2021 (or basically ten times the annual number for all vaccines in VAERS) were attributable to what? And what of the statistically significant increase in the rise of Cause of Death Unknown among, healthy athletes?
    Conspiracy crap, horseshite.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      So sorry that so many people are incapable of understanding data, logical analysis, etc. Really disturbing to me that people are just willing to accept this made-up stuff that you quote here, when it is so easy to check the truth and find out for yourself. Don’t ever, ever, expect me to accept bullshit, wherever it comes from.

  • The Dark Lord says:

    since “covid vaccine” is not a choice for cause of death you have no idea if the vaccine is killing people thru multiple pathways … all you have is “the vaccine didn’t kill them” which is circular logic at its finest since there has not been a SINGLE death cert with “covid vaccine” as cause of death … to say the vaccine has killed no one is obviously false … so some where between 1 and the excess death number is up for grabs … if someone studies it … which I guess you don’t think anyone should do …

    • Kevin Roche says:

      it is fascinating to me that when people decide to believe something all the normal rules of determining causation, much less association, go out the window. Unless someone has some definitive mechanism of action which is specific to the vaccines and clear evidence that this mechanism of action is occurring, it is total speculation and that is all it is in this case. It is a wonder to me that people could even imagine that somehow the vaccine is causing all these deaths long after vaccination while being infected, and in many cases having serious disease, has no impact.

  • Michael Rogers says:

    An important cross-check on your hypotheses would be the time-series data. COVID causes damage to a number of organ systems, both directly and via damage to blood vessels. If excess deaths in a given population are caused (directly or indirectly) by COVID, then those deaths should be well-correlated with reported COVID infection and/or death rates, with an appropriate delay. In contrast, if lockdown is the proximate cause of excess deaths from a given cause, then you should see that abate during the time since severe restrictions were lifted. As a bonus, for the anti-vax conspiracy theorists, if the vaccine were the cause of measurable excess deaths, then excess deaths should correlate with vaccination rate. Finally, a minor note about vaccination efficacy. It is clear that vaccine efficacy against infection waned over time. But, because of the timing of the delta wave, the relative contributions of waning immunity (on our part) and immune escape (by the virus) to that decrease are still argued about in the field.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      The most logical way to assess any lingering risk of vaccines is to do what I suggested, a matched cohort study of the few remaining people who are unvaxed and uninfected versus the few remaining people who are vaxed and uninfected, with lack of infection being determined not just by a past positive test but by antibody tests. I don’t think there is another way to properly address the confounding effect of infection.

  • dell says:

    Yes. An RCT, randomized clinical trial including the unvaxxed, would explain much.

    In the meanwhile there is this:

    “Excess deaths, the data”, Dr. John Campbell, August 28, 2022.

    ( ).

    “A sad day; Excess deaths, non covid”, Dr. John Campbell, September 8, 2022.

    Includes data of current Covid status. YouTube vaccine censorship at 18:min.

    ( )

    “Pandemic optimism, excess deaths pessimism”, Dr. John Campbell, September 3, 2022.
    The Pfizer / Moderna lawsuit is mentioned near the end. He says he would report items of interest from the testimony regarding vaccines.

    ( )

    “Adults Aged 35–44 Died At Twice The Expected Rate Last Summer, Life Insurance Data Suggests”, Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge, September 8, 2022. During the Fall of 2021, “deaths in the 25-to-34 age bracket were 78 percent above the expected level and, for people aged 45 to 54, 80 percent higher than expected. Excess mortality was 53 percent above the baseline for adults aged 55 to 64.”

    This does not prove causation but Biden’s vaccine mandates began on September 9 just as the rise in deaths began. Not mentioned is that the average deaths in some groups is small and therefore relatively small increases can have large percentage changes.

    ( ).

    “Excess mortality in Germany 2020-2022″, Christof Kuhbandner., et al., ResearchGate, August 18, 2022.
    Note Fig. 5, 9, 12, & 13. This also applies to the U.S. In Germany in 2020 there were no excess deaths except for some very elderly in the last month, December. Excess deaths then became more than 35% higher. Excess deaths generally do not apply to the very elderly because of their weak immune systems and poor health; they would have died soon in any event. In 2021 – 2022 coinciding with the mass vaccination program, excess deaths rose significantly especially among those in their 40s to 70s. Note that this study is not cause and effect; it documents what happened not so much why. Note the very young also suffered some excess deaths as a result of the protocols. The Spring increase followed the booster campaign.

    Like that in the U.S. The first booster was not as harmful as the 2 following. Importantly, when the injections ceased, mortality declines. The data and charts clearly show that the restrictions, lockdups, vaccines, nor masks made any difference in excess mortality in Germany. Finally, as consequence of the vaccination program, along with reinfections, and new variety waves are evidently producing all kinds of excess deaths in 2022.

    ( ).

  • goodgrief-952 says:

    On August 27, 2022 you said, “ How good are antibody tests at detecting a prior infection? I personally have wondered because in retrospective I thought I likely had an infection very early, in January 2020, and got an antibody test in April of that year which was negative. This study, while not comprehensive, suggest that the tests are accurate most of the time in people who haven’t been vaccinated, but vaccination cuts accuracy more than in half. Not exactly sure why that would be. (JAMA Article)”

    Yet you just said this in the comments, “The most logical way to assess any lingering risk of vaccines is to do what I suggested, a matched cohort study of the few remaining people who are unvaxed and uninfected versus the few remaining people who are vaxed and uninfected, with lack of infection being determined not just by a past positive test but by antibody tests.”

    So, you don’t really believe what you just said in the comments? Did you forget you had already attempted to disqualify antibody testing for the vaccinated?

    • Kevin Roche says:

      reply to goodgrief, I didn’t disqualify antibody testing, I noted that there is research suggesting it may be less accurate in detecting an infection in those who are vaxed. Any medical test has limitations on accuracy. Antibody testing is the best way we have to pick up people who don’t have a formal CV-19 positive test in their medical records. It isn’t perfect but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be very useful if you are trying to do a study which clearly delineates those with and without a prior infection. And the JAMA study is one piece of research with no explanation for the results. We would need confirming studies with a larger population and some understanding of why to abandon the value of antibody testing.

  • Ira says:

    And Alex Berenson et al should stop their lying about excess deaths being linked to the vaccines–when you look at it by cause, it is absolutely clear what caused these deaths.

    Perhaps Berenson is making a conclusion in good faith–even if his conclusion might be erroneous?

    • Kevin Roche says:

      reply to Ira comment. I am a fan of most of Berenson’s work. On vax safety he has let his win over Twitter and his enjoyment of the spotlight go to his head. He is ignorant on health care, ignorant of statistics and experimental design and relies on innuendo. So I don’t think it is good faith when you refuse to actually think about what you are saying.

    • Ira says:

      Reply to Kevin’s reply to my reply–
      I’ve seen your charts on per capita effectiveness of the COVID shots, and am appropriately impressed by what they show, and I get that you think Berenson is just plain wrong about the the effectiveness/risk benefit of the shots. I would like to see Berenson and you debate this issue.

  • James Felter says:

    I know that my dad died two weeks after his booster shot. My younger niece was convulsed for two weeks following her 2nd Pfizer shot. I have direct associations with people working in hospitals. Some of them are 100% vaccine supportive. Some of them tell me horror stories of covid vaccine side effects among patients and among staff.

    My governnent is corrupt. Why should its medical establishment be trustworthy? I have withdrawn my trust. I certainly hope that I am wrong in this.

    Time will probably tell. In the meantime, I have had covid twice to no signifigant apparent affect.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      reply to James Felter comment. These are the kinds of anecdotes I simply don’t believe either occurred or had anything to do with the vax. When you consider how many people were getting vaxed every day at the height of the vax campaign and how many people die every day on average or have other health issues, the odds of someone who got vaxed also dying shortly thereafter are very good, so weird coincidences don’t mean anything.

  • goodgrief-952 says:

    Replying to Kevin Roche’s reply to Jame’s Felter:

    Wow just wow. Someone reported direct knowledge of death and convulsing for 2 weeks and you “simply don’t believe these events occurred” (regardless of cause)?

    THIS is disturbing.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      Reply to goodgrief. Oh bullshit, people make this shit up every goddamn day–my uncle’s neighbor’s daughter’s boyfriend’s third cousin, etc, etc. The internet is full of it, I hear this crap from people constantly. If as many people died as are reported, half the country would be dead. You are delusionally gullible if you fall for any of this nonsense. Most of it is trolls, probably from Russia or China, the rest is whackjob conspiracy theorists. Don’t expect me to fall for any of it, when I can see the actual data and research. use some common sense for a change. Oh and here is some “direct knowledge” for you. I have talked to 4982 people and not one of them knows anyone who has had any serious reaction to the vax. Is that good enough for you? Seems to be the kind of evidence you rely on. If it makes it better I can say I talked to 44,836 people. Seriously, use your brain.

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