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Excess Death Lies

By September 8, 2022Commentary

Alex Berenson was great early in the pandemic opposing lockdowns and other epidemic insanity.  Then the vaccines came along and he decided to extend his new-found fame by making up crap about their safety.  He is still doing it, claiming that there are excess deaths and implying that they are due to the vaccines.  This is the worst garbage ever.

I don’t know how many times I have to explain this–if there were any significant number of deaths related to the vaccines, the very large electronic medical record systems and health claims systems would have identified them.  They haven’t.  The other thing the anti-vax nuts ignore is that at this point, because the vax were not greatly effective against infection, around 80% of vaxed people have been infected, at least once, and growing every day.  There is research connecting being infected with a subsequent higher risk of mortality.  So ask yourself why the anti-vaxers blame the vax and not the infection for the deaths.  It is purely irrational.

I have also made the point several times that these claims of excess deaths are often founded on lousy reasoning and statistical methods.  This article at the website Daily Skeptic, not exactly the home of vax love, points that out very clearly in regard to supposed recent excess deaths in England.  If you mis-identify your baseline you will come to the wrong conclusion.  And if you don’t recognize that the population has aged, that one of your baseline years from pre-epidemic had an unusual spike in deaths, etc.  It is apparent from the article and accompanying charts that nothing unusual is currently occurring in regard to deaths.  (DS Article)

There are other effects which pull in different directions that should be considered.  One is a “pull forward” effect.  The epidemic primarily led to deaths in the elderly and particularly the frail elderly.  They were often likely to die in a few months or a couple of years.  CV-19 supposedly contributing to their earlier deaths means there could be fewer deaths than expected in the periods in which they would otherwise likely have died.  Sweden, which had very limited epidemic restrictions, is seeing some evidence of this effect.

The other thing which I am 100% certain is occurring are more than the average number of deaths in certain health-care sensitive conditions, like diabetes, cancer, hypertension and heart disease, due to the terror campaign waged during the epidemic.  A lot of health care, diagnoses and treatment were missed.  I think we will pay for that for years.  And many people with dementia in particular died because their limited social interactions were cut back even more.

The chart which I have published and updated several times, coming directly from the CDC deaths data, shows the clear effects of that in Minnesota.  These are non-CV-19 deaths.  And they are deaths above expected.  This is your fault little Timmy Walz and Jan Malcolm.  You are responsible for every one of these deaths.  Waiting for your apology.

Join the discussion 14 Comments

  • D says:

    This is food discussion. After many killed early by the virus and trying hospital treatments to cure, we still see people dying. It’s easy to blame missed checkups and treatment or to blame shots, but can it be both? It seems like there is a void that everyone is trying to fill. Agree?

    • Kevin Roche says:

      I literally see no evidence that it has anything to do with the vax. Post out shortly on Mn excess deaths, which are clearly due to the terror campaign

  • George O'Har says:

    I tend to agree with everything you say, so please see this as a simple query. I agree AB gets out over his skis. But if the vaccine is harmless, why are Sweden, the UK and Denmark prohibiting the shots for children? I understand this isn’t the excess death issue. I’m less dismissive than you on that front. I’m an agnostic.
    I just don’t know. Hopefully, time will tell.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      the issue for children is they have incredibly low risk of serious CV-19 disease, have all had it by now, so the risk/benefit on vax is poor. And as readers know I have forever said that I would not vax children

  • DuluthGuy says:

    I guess I don’t feel as strongly as you do regarding vaccine safety, but agree that there’s not evidence to say that there are significant excess deaths due to the vaccines. And there is overwhelming evidence that the response to COVID (lockdowns, schools closing, delayed treatment of common illnesses, substance abuse, etc) has caused far more deaths (not to mention ruined lives) than COVID ever caused or would have caused.

    While my social circle is for the most part younger to middle age people who are generally healthy, I personally don’t know anybody who’s died or gotten severely sick from COVID. But I do know several people who have gotten quite ill after getting the vaccine, as in barely being able to get out of bed for 3-4 days and then not feeling back to normal for a month after. One older (70’s) relative (who was very pro-mRNA vaccine) even confided to me privately that they have never back to normal to this day after getting their booster (they were fine after the first two shots). Not a scientific study by any means, but from what I’ve personally seen from people I’m close to I don’t have a very positive view of the mRNA shots.

    I guess the most disappointing thing to come out of the past 2.5 years is that I don’t feel like I can trust anything from the government or the medical establishment anymore. The federal and state (for the most part) governments did almost the exact opposite thing that should have been done at the beginning and kept doubling down over and over again after they were wrong. My doctor who I had seen twice before told me during my visit in 2021 that I absolutely need to take the vaccine, as he’s worried that I (early 40’s and in good physical shape) could get very sick. And even if I didn’t personally get sick, I could spread the virus to my young kids and they could get sick. He also added that they had been seeing a lot of cases of “Long-COVID”. Of course, we know now that all of these were complete BS. Let’s just say I won’t be going to that doctor again. I would avoid that entire medical practice, but every other practice was getting the same messaging from agencies they report to.

    I hope that people will throw out politicians who promoted all of the COVID lockdowns at every level this November, but I don’t have very much confidence that it happens.

  • goodgrief-952 says:

    If we are seeing the effect of delayed treatments causing more deaths, then we should proportionally see the effect of the extremely high rate of death caused by medical error go down in the gap of the forwarded time frame. Curious, have you charted those numbers?

    • Kevin Roche says:

      reply to goodgrief. I don’t know what you mean by medical error and I don’t know what “extremely high rate of death” you are referring to. The effect of missed care for common ambulatory care sensitive conditions typically lasts for years

  • goodgrief-952 says:

    “I don’t know how many times I have to explain this–if there were any significant number of deaths related to the vaccines, the very large electronic medical record systems and health claims systems would have identified them. They haven’t.”

    I’m sorry, can you explain again please? How would a very large electronic medical medical record system and health claims system identify a large number of deaths due to the vaccines? Aren’t these great medical records systems still based on human input and not some magically accurate computerized determination of cause of death?

    Curious, have you talked to embalmers? Have you talked to life insurance actuaries?

    “The other thing the anti-vax nuts ignore is that at this point, because the vax were not greatly effective against infection, around 80% of vaxed people have been infected, at least once, and growing every day. There is research connecting being infected with a subsequent higher risk of mortality.”

    There is also research connecting being vaccinated with a higher rate of being infected…from anything. 🤷‍♀️

    • Kevin Roche says:

      reply to goodgrief. This is the problem–you are citing made up stories about embalmers and information from life insurance claims about increased deaths. The life insurance data is completely consistent with the fact that we do have excess deaths, no one disputes that, and a large number are CV-19 and a large number aren’t. Life insurance data does not include detailed cause of death, but what information there is shows it is the same causes I just posted on for Minn. and the US. I have spent almost my entire work career working with health data. I ran the company that created the largest health claims database in the country and I ran clinical and other research organizations. There is nothing to suggest that vax are responsible for people dying. Nothing. And your last sentence is also just completely made up, there is no research showing any such thing.

    • goodgrief-952 says:

      If no one says it’s vaccine deaths, it’s not vaccine deaths.
      Perhaps in just citing all your experience, you can admit a bias.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      reply to goodgrief. I think the problem is that you and others think that if someone says the vaccine is causing deaths, then the vaccine is causing deaths. And I am not sure how understanding data and research creates a bias. Why would I pay any attention to what someone who has far less experience and understanding says, particularly when they can’t come up with any actual data or researc?

  • John Oh says:

    I’ve become very distrustful of everything that comes out of the government these days, and I wonder if information is being suppressed. I’m not a conspiracy theorist — at least I wasn’t — but watching the politics and the lack of scientific discussion in the government response makes it hard not to be suspicious — demonizing Bhattacharya/Kuldorff/Gupta instead of responding as professionals, working with social media to control information, conflating died with and died from, and misstating statistics. I’m really suspicious that next year there will be a correction or revision like they do with GDP and unemployment numbers that will suggest something a little different. I really appreciate your work with Dave Dixon because data is hard to fake over the long term and the data you’ve been going through seems good, and good over the time I’ve been reading your posts. I think you’ve done a lot to keep MN honest. So thanks.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      Reply to John Oh comment. It is unfortunate that people have become less trusting in government, particularly public health, but that lack of trust is amply justified. And it serves as a control on truly out of control goverment actions. But it would be nice to have real competence and transparency in a government.

  • Don Naegele says: Another piece by an anti vax nut. I’d love to see you start debunking these in the comments to their articles. I could post a new like this every day.

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