Supposedly the economy added over 500,000 jobs last month. That is bullshit. There are two sources of employment data. One is a survey of business establishments; the other is a survey of households. While the business survey, which is more susceptible to manipulation, says we had a big job gain, the household survey is telling a very different story. And there are other oddities in the report that make you wonder what is really going on. The last time there was this kind of divergence over several months, eventually the Bureau of Labor Statistics had to issue a massive correction and retroactive revision. I expect the same thing will happen in November, after the mid-terms. (ZH Article)
At the same time, the participation rate dropped again, as governments keep paying people to do nothing, which in turn causes an ongoing spike in wages. Every business has labor costs so every business has to raise prices to keep up with that increase in labor costs. Three things are going to keep inflation very high–labor cost increases, apartment rents continuing to go up and health care inflation catching up with the rest of the economy. And eventually the truth will become apparent on how weak the economy really is–we are seeing layoffs and a rise in unemployment claims, which is completely inconsistent with the supposed growth in jobs. One issue is that whacko progressives who are now pervasive in government have no hesitation about faking the numbers to advance a good “cause”, i.e., them staying in power.
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I think you are right. Is it also possible that more people are picking up 2nd or 3rd part time jobs to make ends meet? Would you like some fries with that? One thing the report does is give the Fed cover to continue raising rates. That might be the biggest reason for this overly optimistic jobs report.
This is a good article explaining what might be the real job picture:
yep, that is what I linked to in the post
Labor Participation Rate is usually the best gauge in how the economy is doing. When there’s a few million fewer employees actually working than there was in 2019, GDP is going to go down.
Question though on your point about governments paying people not to work. While this was true for a long time with the increased unemployment benefits, those expired quite a while ago now. What programs are there that are paying people not to work (other than what was in place pre-COVID)? I have a feeling that everyone who did virtually nothing for nearly two years have simply lost their appetite to work (due to alcohol/drugs and/or laziness) and aren’t very employable anymore. And a lot of people who were close to retirement just hung it up early.
Who knew that Duck Soup would predict the entire Biden presidency to date? “Well, who you gonna believe me or your own eyes” The Biden administration is Chicolini dressed up like the government telling us there’s no inflation, gas price increases are a good thing, we should just buy an electric car, there’s no recession, and the green new deal is gonna be great, the Taliban won’t oppressive women, white supremacy is the greatest threat to the nation and we should not be concerned about drag queens discussing sex with kindergartners. Oh, and we’re all gonna die because of global warming or something.