It is easy for even monumental events to sometimes diffuse into the background in our ADHD world. So it is with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For those who aren’t paying close attention, Russia in recent weeks has made it very clear that the objective all along was purely about conquering Ukraine and forcing it to become part of Russia. All the bullshit about fears of NATO expansion, being provoked, etc., is just that–bullshit. Russia is engaged in clear war crimes and genocide, including the forced relocation to Siberia of hundreds of thousands of Ukraines, and the mass slaughter of civilians.
The war hasn’t gone well militarily for Russia despite an overwhelming advantage on paper. With more advanced weaponry available to Ukraine, the toll on the inept Russian military is accelerating. If only the US and Europe had taken the threat more seriously and given these weapons to Ukraine before the invasion, it might never had occurred. And now there can be no flagging in our resolve to support the country, militarily and financially.
And while Russia is incompetent militarily, it is and always has been great at disinformation campaigns and at finding useful idiots in the US and elsewhere to buy its bullshit lies. So it is with the impact of the economic sanctions on the Russian economy. People say absolute ignorant garbage like the Russian ruble is stronger than ever. The ruble does not trade freely, it is propped up by Russia and no one wants it. People also claim that Russian energy is doing great. It isn’t; Russia is forced to sell its products at a discount and it has forever alienated key customers like Europe, which in a short time will be able to get by just fine without Russian oil or gas. And competitors like the Mideast countries are not going to let Russia steal market share in places like India or even China for long. An underappreciated risk is that the lack of access to Western technology will soon cause significant issues with maintenance of Russian production and transmission facilities. This article lays out clearly the true impact on the Russian economy and what is really happening. You can’t believe anything that comes from Russian “official” sources. (SSRN Paper)
And never forget that this war is about the kind of world we want to live in. One where a larger, more powerful nation can decide it just wants to invade and take over a neighbor because its leader is a delusional satanistic figure, or one in which people can live without fear that they will be invaded. It is an easy choice, and don’t for one minute think you can ignore bad things happening in any part of the world and it won’t eventually impact your country.