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Ukraine Update

By July 29, 2022Commentary

It is easy for even monumental events to sometimes diffuse into the background in our ADHD world.  So it is with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  For those who aren’t paying close attention, Russia in recent weeks has made it very clear that the objective all along was purely about conquering Ukraine and forcing it to become part of Russia.  All the bullshit about fears of NATO expansion, being provoked, etc., is just that–bullshit.  Russia is engaged in clear war crimes and genocide, including the forced relocation to Siberia of hundreds of thousands of Ukraines, and the mass slaughter of civilians.

The war hasn’t gone well militarily for Russia despite an overwhelming advantage on paper.  With more advanced weaponry available to Ukraine, the toll on the inept Russian military is accelerating.  If only the US and Europe had taken the threat more seriously and given these weapons to Ukraine before the invasion, it might never had occurred.  And now there can be no flagging in our resolve to support the country, militarily and financially.

And while Russia is incompetent militarily, it is and always has been great at disinformation campaigns and at finding useful idiots in the US and elsewhere to buy its bullshit lies.  So it is with the impact of the economic sanctions on the Russian economy.  People say absolute ignorant garbage like the Russian ruble is stronger than ever.  The ruble does not trade freely, it is propped up by Russia and no one wants it.  People also claim that Russian energy is doing great.  It isn’t; Russia is forced to sell its products at a discount and it has forever alienated key customers like Europe, which in a short time will be able to get by just fine without Russian oil or gas.  And competitors like the Mideast countries are not going to let Russia steal market share in places like India or even China for long.  An underappreciated risk is that the lack of access to Western technology will soon cause significant issues with maintenance of Russian production and transmission facilities.  This article lays out clearly the true impact on the Russian economy and what is really happening. You can’t believe anything that comes from Russian “official” sources.  (SSRN Paper)

And never forget that this war is about the kind of world we want to live in.  One where a larger, more powerful nation can decide it just wants to invade and take over a neighbor because its leader is a delusional satanistic figure, or one in which people can live without fear that they will be invaded.  It is an easy choice, and don’t for one minute think you can ignore bad things happening in any part of the world and it won’t eventually impact your country.

Join the discussion 3 Comments

  • Dan says:

    What are you information sources for Ukraine and Putin? I’ve been following you since Covid and thank you for your service there but you are seem way off in your Ukraine analysis from what I read from my sources (I will provide if interested)

  • Rod Carew says:

    This was extremely poorly thought out and presented. You should avoid discussing this topic unless/until you become better educated on it.

    “For those who aren’t paying close attention, Russia in recent weeks has made it very clear that the objective all along was purely about conquering Ukraine and forcing it to become part of Russia.”
    -Facts not in evidence (also you are obviously wrong here, its not a surprise you cite nothing to support this statement)

    “Russia is engaged in clear war crimes and genocide, including the forced relocation to Siberia of hundreds of thousands of Ukraines, and the mass slaughter of civilians”
    -Facts not in evidence, also you sound ridiculous. “Mass slaughter of civilians”? Seriously try showing *any* proof of that.

    “The war hasn’t gone well militarily for Russia despite an overwhelming advantage on paper. With more advanced weaponry available to Ukraine, the toll on the inept Russian military is accelerating.”
    -Based on what? You just spat out a ridiculous platitude without offering any frame of reference. Russia has conquered ~1/3 of the country. How is the “toll” accelerating? Men? Material? Seriously, if you have *anything* factual to present, just present it, otherwise you sound like a shill.

    “And now there can be no flagging in our resolve to support the country, militarily and financially.”
    -Here you identify yourself as a despicable person. If you believe this is a worthy cause then *YOU* should support them. It is an unfortunate feature of the U.S. system that people (like you) get to demand that tax dollars get thrown to ridiculous causes (like this one) without having to actually support their preferred cause out of their own pocket book. I would like to see a new law passed that would require people like you to be coerced to liquidate *all* personal wealth to pay into the causes they advocate for before even one cent of tax dollars is distributed. That way at least you would have to put your money where your mouth is, instead of putting *my* money where your mouth is.

    “And while Russia is incompetent militarily, it is and always has been great at disinformation campaigns and at finding useful idiots in the US and elsewhere to buy its bullshit lies.”
    -Nice pejorative. Looks like Russia continues methodically gobbling up Ukranian territory, or is that a lie??

    “People say absolute ignorant garbage like the Russian ruble is stronger than ever. The ruble does not trade freely, it is propped up by Russia and no one wants it.”
    -Here you really go off the rails and should stop talking. The ruble is very strong at the moment – literally because they’re in demand. You’re out of your depth and its showing.

    “People also claim that Russian energy is doing great. It isn’t; Russia is forced to sell its products at a discount and it has forever alienated key customers like Europe, which in a short time will be able to get by just fine without Russian oil or gas”
    -Again, you live in a ridiculous fantasy world. I will stop commenting after this because you’re so far off the rails you sound like some silly second grader talking about he’d be able to take on Mike Tyson. To directly address your points (1) you are wrong, Russia is making record profits from their energy production, (2) selling at a discount is irrelevant when income is still dramatically higher than it was a couple years ago, (3) “forever alienated”? Seriously? They’re all opportunists, there is *no* “forever”, (4) in a short time will get by without Russian oil or gas? yeah ok chief. European countries will be facing revolutions before that happens.

  • Kevin Roche says:

    I rarely reply to people who are clearly so un-self-aware and bogged down in ignorance, but let me make it clear that if you want to be part of the Russian dis-information campaign this is the wrong site for it. I presented a comprehensive academic study on the Russian economy, I regularly read independent sources on the war in Ukraine and everything I said can be easily verified by simple google searches, but you apparently prefer to rely on official Russian media sources. Feel free to take your ignorance and your support of evil elsewhere. There is no place for it here.

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