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Breakthru Events, Ages 50 to 64

By June 6, 2022Commentary

For this age group we basically again see no effectiveness against infection and some benefit against hospitalization.

Dave’s notes:

  • In the following charts we can conclude, for the 50-64 year old age group, that being vaccinated and boosted appears to offer modest protection against being hospitalized or dying from Covid, in the most recent weeks’ data available, while the boosted actually have higher rates of testing positive than the vaccinated or unvaccinated.
  • There are 9 charts in this set, 3 charts each for cases, hospital admissions, and deaths. Each set of 3 charts consists of the actual events per week (cases, admissions, or deaths); the rate per 100k each week, and the proportion of events compared to the proportion of the vaccinated population.
  • Fig. 1: This chart plots the cases in the 50-64 age group per week among the unvaccinated, vaccinated but not boosted, and vaccinated and boosted populations each week. Since the week of 1/30/2022 there have been more cases each week among the boosted, rather than among the vaccinated but not boosted, or unvaccinated. The boosted are the largest subgroup, but only make up 55% of the population, as will be seen in Fig. 3, for the week of 5/08/2022.
  • Fig. 2: This chart displays the case rates per 100k for each subgroup in the 50-64 age group.  It is interesting the most recent months of data that the boosted have the highest rate of cases per 100k, and the unvaccinated have the lowest rate of cases per 100k. Earlier in the pandemic being vaccinated or boosted did lower the case rate compared to the unvaccinated.
  • Fig. 3: This chart displays the proportion of the 50-64 population who are unvaccinated (solid purple), vaccinated but not boosted (solid blue), and vaccinated and boosted (solid gold). For each population group we also display the proportion of cases each week (dashed lines of same color). Note that as people are boosted they are moved from the vaccinated subgroup to the boosted subgroup. The way to interpret this chart is to compare the proportion of breakthroughs to the proportion of vaccinations for each group. Whenever the dashed breakthrough proportion line is below the solid vaccination line of the same color, then that category is underrepresented for population, and that vaccination status might be said to be beneficial (ignoring for now other confounding factors). For the week of 5/8/2022, for example, 55% of this age group was vaccinated and boosted (solid gold line) while this group accounted for 58% of the cases (dashed gold line). We would interpret this to show that being boosted did not reduce an individual’s chances of testing positive for Covid for that week. On the other hand, we can see that being vaccinated but not boosted was very beneficial the week of 5/2/2021 for example (45% vaccinated, but only 8% of the cases) but over time the vaccinated but not boosted subgroup gradually lost the benefit of vaccination, and by the week of 5/2/2022 the vaccinated were 22% of the age group and accounted for 22% of the cases, showing minimal to no benefit to being vaccinated.  
  • Fig. 4-6: These charts display the hospital admissions, hospital admission rates per 100k, and hospital admissions proportions for the 50-64 age group, in an identical format to the case charts in Fig. 1 through Fig. 3. The boosted have made up the highest number of admissions in recent months (Fig. 4), however the admissions per 100k for the unvaccinated are highest, with the vaccinated being second highest, and the boosted having the lowest rates of admissions (Fig. 5). Fig. 6 shows that admissions among the unvaccinated have been disproportionately high throughout the pandemic. Admissions among the boosted remain disproportionately low compared to the boosted proportion of the population that is boosted.  
  • Fig. 7-9: These charts display the deaths, deaths rates per 100k, and deaths proportions for the 50-64 age group, in an identical format to the case charts in Fig. 1 through Fig. 3. The boosted have had the greatest number of deaths each week in the past 2 months before falling to very low levels in the last couple weeks (Fig. 7). Fig. 8 shows that the rates of death per 100k for each subgroup is very low in the most recent months of data. Fig. 10 shows that deaths proportions are highly variable, especially in recent weeks when there are relatively few deaths, but that the boosted subgroup is generally under-represented for deaths since boosters were begun, and that the unvaccinated are over-represented throughout the pandemic.
  • All data is obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Update web site A data file on this site, vbtadultcirates.xlsx, contains all of the age group data.
  • MDH defines the fully vaccinated (what we have termed vaccinated but not boosted) as those who have not received a booster after completing their primary vaccination series, and had been vaccinated at least 14 days prior to testing positive.
  • MDH defines the boosted as those who have received any additional vaccination shots after completing their primary vaccination series, and also received the booster at least 14 days prior to testing positive. In addition, booster doses were only counted after 8/13/2021, the date the CDC first began recommending booster shots.

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