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Breakthrough Events, May 16 Part 2

By May 18, 2022Commentary

The age group breakdown, similar to the overall trend, we are seeing an increase in breakthrough events and declining vax effectiveness.  Couple of things to note–there is really no reason to vax 12-17 year olds.  The risk is low and the vaxed in this group are more likely to be infected and hospitalized than the unvaxed.  Protection against infection is zero in the 18-49 age group and hospitalization protection is headed to zero.  For the 50 to 64 group, similar trend.  For the very oldest group, protection appears higher.

Dave’s notes:

  • New for this week the proportion of each age group who have received a booster shot has been added to the charts. Booster information has been added to the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) published data files starting on 3/06/2022. This data consists of the cumulative number of people in each age group that have received a booster shot. Note that the breakthrough events are defined based on completing the original vaccination series, not based on booster status.
  • In the charts that follow there are 4 slides for each age group; cases, hospital admissions, and deaths for the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations each week, and a single chart showing the breakthrough proportions each week. On 5/16/2022 the data for the week of 4/10/2022 was published by MDH.
  • Fig. 1 thru 4, 12-17 Age Group: Note that in Fig. 4 that the proportion of cases and hospital admissions among the vaccinated in the 12-17 age group remains higher than the proportion of the age group that is fully vaccinated. This means that the per capita rate for cases and admissions among the vaccinated are higher than among the unvaccinated.
  • Fig. 5 thru 8, 18-49 Age Group: In Fig. 8, the vaccinated are also more likely to test positive the week of 4/10/2022 than the unvaccinated, although hospitalizations and deaths are lower among the vaccinated. This implies that this group perhaps benefits from vaccination, reducing hospital admissions compared to cases.
  • Fig. 9 thru 12, 50-64 Age Group: In Fig. 9, we can see that the proportion of cases among the vaccinated is higher than the vaccination, but not the proportion of hospital admissions or deaths.
  • Fig. 13 thru 16, 65 and Over Age Group: The proportion of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among the vaccinated is lower than the proportion vaccinated, implying some benefit from vaccination for this age group.
  • The data source for all charts is the data file vbtcirates.xlsx, found on the MDH web page: , updated 5/16/2022. This data file gives the rates per 100k of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in full vaccinated and not fully vaccinated people, broken out by age group. The rates per 100k in vbtcirates.xlsx are converted into cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by multiplying by the appropriate population. The number of vaccinated people by age group can found on the Vaccine Data page, , in the data file People Vaccinated by Age. The unvaccinated population is found by taking the US Census American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate (Data Table S0101, and subtracting the vaccinated population. The breakthrough proportion is then found by dividing the breakthrough events by the total of the breakthrough and non-breakthrough weekly events.
  • MDH defines a breakthrough event as a Covid case, hospital admission, or death that occurs 14 or more days after completing the vaccination series (not including boosters).

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