The age group charts on breakthroughs. As I have mentioned before and Dave notes below, vaccine effectiveness is essentially gone for cases and diminishing for hosps and deaths. Vax effectiveness against hospitalization in the 12-17 group is zero. It is rapidly diminishing against hosp and death in the 50 to 64 group. In the oldest group, vaccine effectiveness against all events is approaching zero, despite this being a heavily boosted and double boosted group. And I firmly believe breakthrough events are under-identified. Again, remember that this data is lagged by a month, so the current situation is even worse.
- One new realization, which in hindsight is pretty obvious, is that whenever the proportion of cases, hospitalizations, or deaths among the vaccinated is equal to or higher the proportion of the population which is vaccinated, then the rates per 100k for these events will also be higher among the vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated. This has been verified by looking at the rates per 100k contained in the data file vbtcirates.xlsx, as noted in Note 8 below. When this condition exists it mean that vaccination is effectively neutral in terms of preventing positive Covid tests, although the vaccinated still have lower rates of hospitalization and death than the unvaccinated, in most age groups.
- In the charts that follow there are 4 slides for each age group; cases, hospital admissions, and deaths for the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations each week, and a single chart showing the breakthrough proportions each week.
- New for the last few weeks is the addition of a curve on each chart showing the per cent of each age group that is fully vaccinated at the start of each week. Fully vaccinated is defined as completing their vaccination shots at least 14 days prior to the start of the week, but booster shots are not considered.
- Fig. 1 thru 4, 12-17 Age Group: Note that in Fig. 4 that the proportion of cases among the vaccinated is slightly higher than the proportion of the age group that is fully vaccinated. Whenever this occurs the cases per 100k among the vaccinated is higher than among the vaccinated. For the week of 3/27/2022, for the 12-17 age group, the vaccinated have a case rate of 23.8 per 100k, and the unvaccinated have a case rate of 23.0 per 100k. A similar situation occurs for hospital admissions, with the vaccinated being hospitalized for the week of 3/27/2022 at 0.7 per 100k, and the unvaccinated being hospitalized at 0.6 per 100k.
- Fig. 5 thru 8, 18-49 Age Group: In Fig. 8, the vaccinated are also more likely to test positive the weeks of 3/27/2022 than the unvaccinated, although hospitalizations and deaths are lower among the vaccinated.
- Fig. 9 thru 12, 50-64 Age Group: Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all at very low levels in this age group. The proportion of vaccinated cases is also higher than the vaccination rate in this age group for the last couple weeks reported.
- Fig. 13 thru 16, 65 and Over Age Group: Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among the vaccinated in this age group are all trending higher.
- The data source for all charts is the data file vbtcirates.xlsx, found on the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) web page: https://www.health.state.mn.
us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/ vbtcirates.xlsx , updated 5/02/2022. This data file gives the rates per 100k of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in full vaccinated and not fully vaccinated people, broken out by age group. The rates per 100k in vbtcirates.xlsx are converted into cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by multiplying by the appropriate population. The number of vaccinated people by age group can found on the Vaccine Data page, https://mn.gov/covid19/ vaccine/data/index.jsp , in the data file People Vaccinated by Age. The unvaccinated population is found by taking the US Census American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate (Data Table S0101, https://data.census.gov/ cedsci/table) and subtracting the vaccinated population. The breakthrough proportion is then found by dividing the breakthrough events by the total of the breakthrough and non-breakthrough weekly events.
- MDH defines a breakthrough event as a Covid case, hospital admission, or death that occurs 14 or more days after completing the vaccination series (not including boosters).