Not really a cause for celebration, other than to rub it in the face of Governor Walz, who has repeatedly lied about breakthru events, including most notably claiming last fall that none of the recent deaths would be in the vaxed. Since then probably 40% have been in the vaxed. You may recall that after last week’s report, Dave’s tables showed that we were over 60% of cases being breakthrus and given the time lag for processing, I said that in real time, we were likely over 50% in all breakthru events, including hosps and deaths. Well, a week later, the trend continues and we are very close to that watershed. And I am more convinced than ever that in real time today, we are likely at 75% to 80% breakthrough cases, and over 50% on hosps and deaths. 45,000 cases, over 800 hosps and over 150 deaths in the vaxed reported this week. Funny how we aren’t hearing that epidemic of the unvaxed nonsense any more. And yes, I understand, and you see us print our analysis supporting this here, that per capita rates in the vaxed are still much lower and that is the better measure of vaccine effectiveness. But as always, my foremost concern is appropriate public policy and the sheer numbers of breakthru events will continue to feed the epiterrorists and their hysteria. Full charts up in a post soon.
We Are at 50% Breakthrus!!
About this Blog
The Healthy Skeptic is a website about the health care system, and is written by Kevin Roche, who has many years of experience working in the health industry. Mr. Roche is available to assist health care companies through consulting arrangements through Roche Consulting, LLC and may be reached at [email protected].
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I would like to see an honest scientific assessment of how soon the public health establishment should have been able to predict most of this future pandemic trajectory. Once we knew it was airborne and realistic evaluations of fatality rates (low, medium, high against other respiratory viruses) I suspect this path should have been foreseen. The inefficiency of masks was already known from pre-pandemic preparation (and reflected in the CDC and OSHA guidance documents) as well as likely effectiveness of vaccines (if not the speed of new bioengineering and production of vaccines). I suspect that no later than late summer 2019 a clear picture was available to anyone who had studied past pandemics.
As someone who got the Swine Flu vaccine in the 1970s and then seemed to be impervious to H1N1 there seems to be a lot of data out there.
up soon a post on trajectory which is kind of interesting and suggests an ability within a wave to define in the first few days the shape and length of the wave.