Dave put together another way to look at the burden of cases among groups, based on a new data file received from DOH. The base is the unvaccinated, the next layers are breakthroughs and reinfections. We do not know overlap between breakthroughs and reinfections, but they exist. We also don’t know how many undetected infections there are, which could increase number of reinfections, but decrease or increase the rate, and could do the same for breakthroughs. State has the data, won’t give it, but at least they gave us a little more detail. Until we get all the data, sure looks like a whole lot more breakthroughs than reinfections. Dave’s notes:
1. In response to a Data Practices Act request the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) on 1/14/2022 provided us a database of Covid breakthrough infections, with all breakthrough cases listed by date, along with age of person, whether or not hospitalized, and whether or not deceased. In total there are 162,831 breakthrough cases listed, which is the current total breakthrough cases published on the MDH COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Report https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html.
MDH has requested that I stop asking for weekly updates of the vaccine breakthrough data, and that I should ask for updates monthly instead. I have taken this request as a promise to provide monthly updates. We will see if this is a correct interpretation.
2. On the following charts the data field “Daily Unvaccinated Initial Cases” is determined by subtracting the daily breakthrough cases and daily reinfections for the total daily cases. Breakthrough cases and Reinfections are obtained from the Minnesota Situation Update for COVID-19 https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html.
3. It is unknown how complete the reporting on breakthrough cases is. We have chosen not to display the last 2 weeks of data, ending the charts on 12/31/2021. Since the data for cases and reinfections are published every week day we know that reporting for cases and reinfections are substantially complete in 2 weeks. It is possible that reporting for breakthrough cases lags more than 2 weeks, but without more frequent data sets it impossible for us to know how complete the reporting is.
4. We can see visually that breakthrough cases and reinfection cases appear to be an increasing proportion of total cases Now that we have more detailed breakthrough data, more analysis can be contemplated.