Dave Dixon’s usual Monday update on breakthrough events. Please note that the delays in processing which are occurring at DOH means that the proportions are likely undercounts, as identifying breakthrus is low on DOH’s priority list. And as you can see by the dates on the table, the entire analysis is lagged due to the time it takes for a person to be considered fully vaxed and the time to match events and vax status. When the processing is fully completed and up-to-date, I fully expect that current proportions will be much higher than shown in the table. T Dave’s notes:
1. The table and charts are updated for new data released by Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) on 1/10/2022, adding data for the week starting 12/05/2021.
The data source for Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 is the data file https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbtcounts.xlsx found on MDH web page https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html.
2. The data provided in the data file vbtcounts.xlsx is used without modification, other than to sum the weekly events and compute the breakthrough proportion. Vbtcounts.xlsx provides breakthrough and non-breakthrough cases, hospital admissions, and deaths for each week listed.
3. The data source for the breakthrough proportions by age group (Fig. 3 through Fig. 6) is the data file vbtcirates.xlsx, found on the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) web page: https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbtcirates.xlsx . This data file gives the rates per 100k of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in full vaccinated and not fully vaccinated people, broken out by age group.
4. The rates per 100k in vbtcirates.xlsx are converted into cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by multiplying by the appropriate population. The number of vaccinated people by age group can found on the Vaccine Data page, https://mn.gov/covid19/vaccine/data/index.jsp , in the data file People Vaccinated by Age. The unvaccinated population is found by taking the US Census American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate (Data Table S0101, https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table) and subtracting the vaccinated population. The breakthrough proportion is then found by dividing the breakthrough events by the total of the breakthrough and non-breakthrough weekly events.
5. MDH defines a breakthrough event as a Covid case, hospital admission, or death that occurs 14 or more days after completing the vaccination shots (not including boosters).
6. Fig. 1 and 2, Overall Breakthrough Proportions: All categories of cases, hospital admissions, and deaths were reduced for the week starting 12/5/2021. In addition, the breakthrough proportion of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths was somewhat lower than for the prior several weeks.
7. Fig. 3 through 6: Breakthrough Proportions by Age Group: The breakthrough proportions by age charts follow the same general trend as seen for the overall chart, Fig. 1. Of note, the breakthrough proportion of cases for the 65+ age group (Fig. 6) has fallen below 60% for the first time since 7/25/2021. Hospital admissions and deaths for the 65+ have similarly fallen to levels not seen since July, 2021.