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Breakthrough Events, January 3

By January 5, 2022Commentary

Well, here we are with another year of charts, statistics, data and research.  Note that the state is likely very behind in processing events of all types due to the holidays, and we know that breakthru events are at the bottom of the pile.  No really notable changes here from the last couple of weeks.  In a week or two, when DOH starts to catch up, I expect we will see breakthru proportions grow.  And yes, I know case rates and per capita rates are in many ways more meaningful, but unless and until the state gives us the data in their possession, we will do the best we can with these.  Case proportion of breakthrus slowly but steadily growing, hospitalization proportion flat, deaths waffling around.  Recall too that this data is five weeks old, right now the proportions are almost certainly much higher.  Dave Dixon’s notes:

1. The table and chart are updated for new data released by MDH on 1/03/2022, adding week starting 11/28/2021. The source is the data file found on MDH web page
The data provided in the data file vbtcounts.xlsx is used without modification, other than to sum the weekly events and compute the breakthrough proportion. Vbtcounts.xlsx provides breakthrough and non-breakthrough cases, hospital admissions, and deaths for each week listed.

2. MDH defines a breakthrough event as a Covid case, hospital admission, or death that occurs 14 or more days after completing the vaccination shots (not including boosters).

3. The data published by MDH in this data file contains cases for those 12 and over only. Including cases for those under 12 would tend to decrease the breakthrough proportions somewhat for cases, but almost not all for hospital admissions (because there are so few admissions for those under 12), and even less for deaths.

4. There were 12,624 breakthrough cases for the week starting 11/28/2021, a new weekly record, and the proportion of breakthrough cases was 44.9%. Peculiarly, the breakthrough proportion of cases has now been 44.9% three weeks in a row. The underlying data has changed each week, and it is not a math error on my part.

5. Breakthrough hospital admissions were 386 for the week, down from the 398 breakthrough admissions for the week starting 11/07/2021.

6. The breakthrough deaths were 64 for the week, but the prior week’s 79 deaths was revised up to 92.

7. In this data release there were minor revisions to cases back to early September, and also to hospital admissions and deaths back to early October.

8. The first Omicron variant was announced on 12/02/2021, based on a specimen collected on 11/24/2021. The last week of this breakthrough table then is for the time period in which Omicron was just starting to circulate in Minnesota (

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