If you look at the Moronic wave curves in South Africa and now in the UK, you see the same steep parabola, fast up, brief peak, sharp down. And a far lower rate of serious illness, which can be due to vaccination and prior infection but also may be due to a less lethal nature. What is clear is that all the hysterical hand-wringing about a blizzard of cases overwhelming us was, as usual, completely unjustified. What is overwhelming the health system is people doing home tests, getting positive results and showing up for treatment when they basically have no symptoms. DON’T TEST UNLESS YOU HAVE SERIOUS SYMPTOMS. DON’T SEEK HEALTH CARE UNLESS YOU ARE TRULY SICK.
Among the signs that the powers in charge are about to change their tune is the increasing focus on how many hospitalizations attributed to CV-19 actually are for treatment. The evidence is coming from a number of places. The UK government was forced to begin reporting this data some time ago. At all times, at least 20% of hospitalizations were for another reason, with an incidental positive test. Recently that proportion has ticked up to 33%. (DS Story) Reducing scary numbers is one way our trapped politicians and political experts will justify getting out of their epidemic obsession. Further detail is provided in this story. (Mail Story) While hospitals claim that CV-19 is a serious co-morbidity, I doubt it if the admission was for another reason. And claiming that they still have to follow anti-transmission protocols is theoretically no different than a patient with the flu.
And two of our neighboring states, Iowa and North Dakota, somehow can report the proportion of hospitalizations that were for treatment versus incidental, but the Minnesota DOH can’t. Maybe because they don’t like what the data says. In North Dakota, the proportion of non-treatment hosps has generally been at least 30% and has recently headed toward 50%. (N.Dak. Data) Similarly in Iowa, around a fourth to a third of hospitalizations are not admissions for treatment. (Iowa Data)
There has to be an accounting for the reckless disregard for the welfare of children evinced by our political and public health leaders. Kowtowing to teachers’ unions has caused a huge increase in mental health cases among children. This story from the local children’s hospital is illustrative. So I really don’t ever again want to hear that children are resilient. (TC Story)
Moronic does appear to cause milder disease. This study from South Africa found that a much smaller percent of persons who presented at an ER with CV-19 were admitted to a hospital with Moronic than in earlier waves, and they had lower lengths of stay and needed less intensive treatment. Other factors may contribute, but a less dangerous variant seems to be part of the explanation, and prior infection-derived immunity may also play a role. (JAMA Study) A second study from South Africa has identical findings. (SSRN Paper)
Among other effects of vaccines, they appear to reduce viral loads of those who become infected. This paper from Israeli found that boosters had a similar impact, but that, as with the original doses, the effect of lowering viral loads lessened over time. Boosters are starting to look like original doses, and there are safety and other concerns about continuing to give people mRNA based vaccines ad infinitum. (Medrxiv Paper)
Another paper finding that T cells hold up better than circulating antibodies and generally are effective in limiting disease upon any reinfection. This is true in both vaxed and prior-infected persons. (Medrxiv Paper)
This study from Austria covers a lot of ground in regard to antibody prevalence but the most notable finding is that circulating levels following infection appear more durable than following vax. (Medrxiv Paper)
The effect of vaccination and/or prior infection upon the immune reaction to attempted new infection by Moronic is explored in this paper. In general, being both vaxed and infected seems to generate the broadest and strongest response across variables, but considerable individual variability was observed. Moronic did appear to have significant ability to evade both vax and prior-infection derived immunity. (Medrxiv Paper)