More reason for panic on the way in Minnesota, it looks like cases probably headed up a week to ten days ago. Screwed up processing and reporting will cause it to take a while to verify this. Stop the testing is all I can say.
And some countries and states are reporting surges in flu cases. There may be some actual rebound, but here is the real problem, we are beginning to test for and report flu like we have CV-19. That is a nightmare, we will never get out of this germophobic insanity if we keep doing this. STOP TESTING.
We appear to be at an inflection point wherein increasing numbers of people are just deciding they are done with the epidemic and all the futile suppression measures associated with it. And there is another sizable group who are still happy to accede to the terrorism and engage in whatever dumb thing they are told to do. Simon says wear 8 masks. Simon says have ten doses of vaccine. Simon says never get within 500 feet of another human being. And so on.
This study which came from a South African vaccine trial, says that Moronic cases are more likely to be asymptomatic but have similar viral loads to Delta ones. I remain dubious about all early conclusions comparing one variant to another. (Medrxiv Study)
Another Moronic severity study comes from Canada. This is a matched study of 6000 patients with Moronic versus the same number with Delta. The Moronic hosp rate was .3% versus 2.2% in Delta patients and the death rate was 0% versus .3% for Delta. But the authors have to throw in a little terrorism by saying this variant is oh so much more transmissible that it can overwhelm health resources by sheer numbers. (Medrxiv Paper)
According to this study from Denmark, Moronic has higher rates of transmission in households than Delta did. But interestingly, the comparative rate was only slightly higher among unvaxed persons, and was much higher in vaxed ones. Who knows what confounders, including prior infection, are present. The authors interpret the findings as meaning that Moronic is not more transmissible, it just has better immune system evasiveness than Delta. (Medrxiv Paper)
This study from Sweden finds that the risk of hospitalization and severe illness was higher in unvaxed adults during the Delta wave than the Alpha one. Not clear how well confounding factors were dealt with, particularly around differences in health seeking behaviors and whether there were changes in detection of all infections which might influence case rates. (Medrxiv Paper)
A Brazilian paper examines vaccine effectiveness in those with prior infection, comparing four vaccines. Effectiveness against infection in this group was moderate, while that against hospitalization and death was excellent. Note that the results are the additional protection afforded by vax after infection. Strong protection appears provided by a prior infection alone as well, and the additional protection from vax in terms of rates was pretty modest. (Medrxiv Paper)
I said let’s wait and see on effectiveness of boosters. That may have been wiser than I thought at the time. This study from Israel, sort of the canary in the vaccine coal mine, tested effectiveness of boosters over time in adults 60 and over. After three months, circulating antibody levels had declined following the booster, which had raised them substantially, but the levels were still deemed adequate to be highly protective. Let’s see where we are at 6 months. (Medrxiv Paper)
While vaccines may cause some heart issues, so does CV-19, particularly in those with pre-existing cardiovascular disease. They incurred a much greater likelihood of serious outcomes when infected. (Medrxiv Paper)
A paper from Brazil showing that temperature and humidity may be associated with rates of transmission and number of cases. No one knows the exact formula. But there really is a seasonal or geographic pattern. (Medrxiv Paper)