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Breakthrough Events, December 27

By December 28, 2021Commentary

Monday is breakthrough dump day so here is Dave’s updated table and chart of events.  You can see a sort of plateauing of breakthrough cases at around 45% of all cases, hosps at around 33% and deaths at around 40%.  The speed at which DOH processes breakthrough events appears highly variable, so data tends to change from week to week for a prior week.   Dave will have his case rate table and chart available shortly, which I teased in a post a day or so ago.  Dave’s notes:

1.The table and chart are updated for new data released by MDH on 12/27/2021, adding week starting 11/21/2021. The source is the data file found on MDH web page
The data provided in the data file vbtcounts.xlsx is used without modification, other than to sum the weekly events and compute the breakthrough proportion. Vbtcounts.xlsx provides breakthrough and non-breakthrough cases, hospital admissions, and deaths for each week listed.

2. MDH defines a breakthrough event as a Covid case, hospital admission, or death that occurs 14 or more days after completing the vaccination shots (not including boosters).
The data published by MDH in this data file contains cases for those 12 and over only. Including cases for those under 12 would tend to decrease the breakthrough proportions somewhat for cases, but almost not at all for hospital admissions (because there are so few admissions for those under 12), and even less for deaths.

3. There were 9,120 breakthrough cases for the week starting 11/21/2021, down from last week’s high, and the proportion of breakthrough cases was 44.7%, also slightly lower than last week. Breakthrough hospital admissions were 392 for the week, second only to the 395 breakthrough admissions for the week starting 11/07/2021. The breakthrough deaths were 79 for the week, 39.7% of the weekly total.

4. In this data release there were minor revisions to the last 1 to 2 months of data, adding a small numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. The additions to the death totals are somewhat more significant, but since vaccinated and not fully vaccinated deaths were added, the breakthrough proportion of deaths remained close to the same as before.

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