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Coronamonomania Lives Forever, Part 72, Heavy on First Wave of Moronic Research

By December 22, 2021Commentary

The good Dr. OsterHeimlich Maneuver is off his meds again and indulging in his favorite weather analogies.  Last year Florida was awaiting an offshore hurricane of CV-19 Delta, which apparently dissipated before it got near the shore.  Now the whole nation is about to get a “blizzard” of Moronic variant.  Mike is apparently auditioning for leader of that viral horde.  When last seen, Mike was saying he had sworn off predicting.  Should have stuck to that vow.  But these people, our beloved experts, just can’t get out of their own way and use some common sense and a little patience.

I will or have posted the most recent active cases and week-over-week charts.  Looks to me like once again we are rolling over, barring the sudden appearance of the blizzard.  You can do the week-over-week analysis for yourself by going to the table of cases by specimen date in the situation update.  Go to the end, the current dates, go back a week or so, so now go to the 12th.  Then compare the 12th to the 5th, the 11th to the 4th, and so on.  If the latter dates are higher, trend was likely still up a week ago, if the latter dates are lower, trend was likely going down.  What we do in the week-over-week is this analysis plus looking at the change in the trend, which is the really meaningful number.  At what rate are cases going up or down?

And, disappointingly I am sure to the inventor of the OsterHeimlich Maneuver (for newer readers, this appellation was earned when the good doctor basically suggested we all go into our basements and shut down every activity of every type for as long as it took.  Instead of quick jerk to clear the virus, he suggested a prolonged breath-suppressing variant of the maneuver), it appears that as of a week ago the trend was down and pretty clearly down.  But maybe that blizzard is right there waiting to strike.

And Presidementia Biden’s big plan involves him milli-tupling down on testing, which is what is really keeping us in this mess, and he wants us all to do it all the time in our homes.  I have a far better plan–everyone stop testing, unless you are quite symptomatic, and have loss your sense of taste and smell.  All this excessive testing will do is lead to forever quarantining of children from school and people from their jobs.  These are not wildly accurate tests, in fact they are pretty inaccurate, especially as we administer them to ourselves.  You are delusional if you think this level of testing will get us out of the epidemic.  It will only lead to more and more “cases”, hysteria and disruption of daily life.

Finally, hot of the presses, the IB has tested positive and is quarantining.  Now in his case I would recommend a very long quarantine and avoid doing any work.  That would be immensely helpful to the state.  And since he was vaxed and boosted, and he likely got it from his vaxed son, this is a little karma and maybe he will stop his demonization of the unvaxed.  And in case you think boosters are going to be more effective than the original doses against infection, I don’t think the early anecdotal evidence is good, as I have heard from several people that they tested positive even after being boosted.

I mentioned yesterday that I would give you the Moronic research as soon as I saw any, so here are several studies of the variant the media has breathlessly hoped for, allowing it to sustain panic and terror for another few months.  South Africa may be where this arose or certainly appears to have first been concentrated.  Not a high level of vaccination in SA, but likely a lot of prior infection.  A young population.  Fairly good health system, but completeness and accuracy of data may be uncertain.

This study among health care workers in South Africa compared breakthrough infections across variants including Moronic.  Now, there is a little confounding here because Moronic is obviously occurring when there is both higher natural adaptive immunity in the population and it is longer after some people were vaccinated, but Moronic appeared to cause a far higher rate of breakthru infections.  It also caused fewer breakthru hospitalizations, with shorter length of stays.  So again, early data in the early part of Moronic phase, but appears to be more likely to cause breakthrus and lead to less likelihood of severe illness.  (Medrxiv Paper)

This paper came from the US and involves modeling supposed trends in South Africa so I view it as less trustworthy.  It estimated very high levels of prevalence in the South African population before Moronic, including multiple reinfections, and found that this strain was about 37% more transmissible than Delta and was able to evade existing antibody immunity.  Notably, they found that while Moronic growth appeared very rapid in initial weeks after introduction, it also had a short peak and declined rapidly.  This is suggestive of what would likely happen if a new strain is introduced into a population with very substantial prior exposure.  People are going to be exposed but they aren’t very infectious and clear the virus quickly.  (Medrxiv Paper)

This study from SA is perfect for the US media.  It focussed on child hospitalizations during the intial wave of Moronic.  A sharp rise in such hosps was found, about 460 or 7% of cases in children resulted in hospitalization.  You read down a bit, however, and you see that only 44% were admissions for treatment of CV-19 and that length of stay was short.  (Medrxiv Paper)

And this paper also focussed on the clinical severity of the Moronic variant in SA.  Individuals had about one-fifth the risk of being hospitalized compared to persons infected with other variants, but for those hospitalized the severity of disease was similar.  (Medrxiv Paper)

And finally, a paper from the Netherlands looking at early Moronic cases there.  The authors compared risk of infection from Moronic to that from earlier strains, looking at the vaccinated and prior infected subgroups.  Among Moronic infectees, 85% had been vaccinated, compared to 62% for prior strains; and 2.8% had a prior CV infection, compared to 1.3% for other strains.  It appeared that both vaccinated persons and those with prior infection were five times more likely to be infected by Moronic.  (Medrxiv Paper)

So there you are on Moronic research.

Join the discussion 6 Comments

  • Corey says:

    I can’t help but think perhaps Santa has been watching Little Timmy over the past two years and decided to deliver a heaping pile of coal for Christmas.

  • David Krieg says:

    I remain amazed at the amount of information you are able to compile and succinctly communicate here. Thank you for all you do. As one commenter wrote in the past, you help us retain a level of sanity in a world gone insane with gov’t over-reach and misinformation.

  • Dan says:

    “ It estimated very high levels of prevalence in the South African population before Moronic, including multiple reinfections, and found that this strain was about 37% more transmissible than Delta and was able to evade existing antibody immunity.”

    Question: So it seems that Covid will continue mutating so it can survive. Is their any evidence previously infected had any symptoms beyond a runny nose or cough? Are there other viruses still circulating after years of mutations we have just learned to like with (the flu I’m guessing)?

    • Kevin Roche says:

      We live with all kinds of respiratory viruses that are all constantly mutating, CV-19 isn’t going away and I believe is destined to join the list of seasonal coronaviruses that circulate.

  • Rob says:

    All the boosters are doing is boosting one’s chance of getting infected with the current variant. It is clear the “booster” is just the same thing as the original shot – you produce antibodies for the original spike protein. But that spike protein has mutated – so your body is essentially producing antibodies for a virus that is no longer circulating, thus you are more susceptible to whatever variant IS circulating. You wouldn’t take last year’s flu shot, why take last year’s covid shot? Because the Presidementia ordered you to?? As my mom used to say “If the President told you to jump in the lake you’d do that to!”

    Lucky thing that moronic has been mild so far, and also lucky that doctors are slowly realizing that they have to recommend therapeutics which are having good effect. The bureaucrats are going to deny, deny, deny that their methods are not working and will double down on them. Then when enough doctors ignore the stupidity and start treating patients instead of telling them to suck it up, the hospitalizations and deaths will go down and the bureaucrats will claim their double-down methods worked – much like they took credit for summer.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      not quite accurate, depending on the sequences included in a vaccine, it can still help identify and defend against a variant, and the boosters in general appear to raise antibody and other immune cell levels. So I think they will give some protection and continue to provide protection against serious disease, but as I keep saying, nothing stops exposure and an over-sensitive PCR test from calling you a case.

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