Okay, I used to love the Atlantic magazine because it had thoughtful, contrarian pieces. Then it went full progressive bullshit woke and just became ideological garbage. But during the epidemic a vestige of its former attitude began to pop back up and the journal has actually had some interesting takes. Now they have discovered another pretty obvious truth, we don’t have an epidemic of the unvaccinated, we are heading to an epidemic of the vaxed. Unfortunately they then turn this insight into an opportunity to engage in the worst kind of terrorism regarding the Moronic variant. This is what we are faced with–a media that will look for every possible opportunity to buy eyeballs by printing sensationalist hysteria with no factual basis. (Atlantic Article)
We need more of this, an study which explores the statistical and methodological issues in research on mitigation of spread tactics, which points out that very small changes in approach completely change findings; in other words most research on the topic is worthless, particularly in regard to mobility changes allegedly caused by lockdowns, etc. (NBER Paper)
Another NBER paper focuses on excess death calculations. The author points out several errors he believes exist in other calculations. One difficulty is that there actually is a fair amount of variability in deaths from year-to-year. He determines that in general prior reports found too many excess deaths and that about 85% of all excess deaths were attributable to CV-19. But he appears to be accepting the over-broad CDC approach to attributing deaths to CV-19. Males had slightly more deaths than females. Whites had more deaths but a lower proportion of excess deaths than other ethnic groups. By age group, the most excess deaths were obviously in the elderly, but on a percent basis there wasn’t a lot of difference among age groups except in the very young. Fewer excess deaths in non-whites and among the young and middle-ages were attributed to CV-19. Heart disease had the most excess deaths and diabetes and dementia had the largest percent excess deaths. Can you say missed care? Accidental deaths, homicides and drug overdoses had large percent increases. Can you say lockdowns? Suicides were actually down, but see drug overdoses. (NBER Paper)
The latest UK vaccine surveillance report. Here is the real question, why doesn’t our outstanding, unparallelled, wonderful, tremendous CDC put out similar reports. The answer is twofold; they are completely incompetent, lifelong bureaucrats and it wouldn’t fit the desired political message. Anyway the UK report shows the same trend of lessening vax effectiveness against infection, continued protection against hosp and death, with some hint that boosters are helping. (UK Report) But one thing the UK data shows is that just like in the US, there will be enough events among the fully vaxed to keep the terror going if you want to.
This study in Science finds again that the combination of infection and vax appears to drive the strongest immune response and suggests that those with prior infection only need one dose of a vaccine to create that enhanced protection. (Science Article)
A study from Canada finds that in general hospitalization death rates declined and ICU length of stay decreased during the epidemic, likely due to improved treatments and despite the arrival of the dreaded Alpha and Delta variants. (Medrxiv Paper)
This paper describes an outbreak in a homeless shelter in California, which occurred among the vaxed and unvaxed. 80% of vaxed residents became infected and 71% of unvaxed ones. 14% of the vaxed cases were hospitalized and 2% of the unvaxed ones. One person in each group died. 12 persons had a detected prior infection, only five of these became reinfected and none were hospitalized. And of course, the authors’ lesson is that we all need to wear ten masks, say 400 feet apart and never leave our basements, even if fully vaxed. (Medrxiv Paper)
An interesting paper which explores why variants may have a transmission advantage and tries to develop a model identifying the Alpha and Delta supposed advantage. The authors focus not just on case growth but on apparent changes in the generation interval or the time between one person being infected and their infection of another person. Interesting but still missing a possible role of variable susceptibility in the population. (Medrxiv Paper)
And another piece of research validates what we already can tell by recent statistics, the vaccines don’t work as well in older people. (JID Article)
Kevin – learned about your blog from Powerline and it’s part of my regular reading now. Thanks.
The excess deaths issue is fascinating and key to understanding the “pandemic”. I don’t know if you were aware of Genevieve Briand from JHU and her analysis of death rates. She caused a storm as the authorities sought to discredit her work – you can find the whole mess by searching for her name. Her second presentation is at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Genevieve-Briand/publication/349925425_COVID-19_Deaths_A_Look_at_US_Data_FEB_2021_WORKING_PAPER_Genevieve_Briand/links/6047996b92851c077f2ae1be/COVID-19-Deaths-A-Look-at-US-Data-FEB-2021-WORKING-PAPER-Genevieve-Briand.pdf?origin=publication_detail. I’ve reread it a few times and each time it makes more sense.
I recall that and she was pretty accurate as I recall
“Here is the real question, why doesn’t our outstanding, unparallelled, wonderful, tremendous CDC put out similar reports. The answer is twofold; they are completely incompetent, lifelong bureaucrats and it wouldn’t fit the desired political message.”
…and innocent people are paying the price for their incompetence: ‘Judge Berates Albert Lea Bistro Owner, Gives Her 90 Days, $1,000 Fine for Violating Gov. Walz’s COVID-19 Indoor Service Ban’ https://theminnesotasun.com/2021/12/10/judge-berates-albert-lea-bistro-owner-you-just-wanted-to-make-money-during-a-global-pandemic-gives-her-90-days-1000-fine-for-violating-gov-walzs-covid-19-indoor-service-ban/?unapproved=29858&moderation-hash=c88eb4b3e25a7e982808af6b785c8751#comment-29858
She would’ve gotten less time for burning down buildings/jacking cars in this ridiculous state!
Kevin. I’m having hard time finding out just how many omi cases are out there. Media talks about 19 states, 1/3 of states etc. affected but no case numbers.
I don’t think anyone knows, but it really doesn’t seem to be spreading much here. Minnesota so far has found very few cases.
For the UKHSA report analysis, I recommend:
– https://noline.substack.com/p/uksa-week-49 (time series since week 37 graphed)
– https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/ukhsa-efficacy-stats-week-49
be sure to emphasize that people should look at the hosp and death stats. Shocking, just shocking to see that vax are highly protective against those outcomes.
https://coronanews123.wordpress.com/2021/12/07/indian-bar-association-files-first-criminal-case-accusing-bill-gates-of-mass-murder/
I’m not sure we’ve had a country file suite against a billionaire oligarch before for funding a wonderfully ‘safe and effective’ product. I’m asking Santa for a new XL Tinfoil hat for Christmas, the 2021 hat is starting to get very tight !
I thought “Science” was just smacked down in a recent post for being captured by the political class? Now we’re supposed to believe that you need a jab even if your have full and durable immunity from you own system. I’m calling BS, just another propaganda article to get everyone jabbed regardless of your health status. They can’t have a control group, all of the stops are being pulled out to destroy it.
The real question is, where will they hold the trials when this implodes. Nuremburg was selected for the Nazis. Hum, maybe we’ll go with Luzern for the Davos crowd? Great accommodations for all of the witnesses !
you are truly out of your mind
I used to be subscribed to The Atlantic in the 80s and through to the 90s. Then it went full moonbat. It employs Jemele Hill. Need I say more?