Active Cases, December 4

Three posts coming, with charts and notes by Dave Dixon, on items that help track epidemic trends.  This fall seems more volatile than last year, largely due to vaccines but also to some testing oddities.  So my prediction proclivities, never strong, are in high reticence mode.  It looks like we have rolled over, but could be another head fake.  And hospitalizations and deaths occur for some time, even after cases recede.  And I would like to commend DOH for today, a year late, identifying a new CV-19 death that occurred in November 2020.  Let us leave no corpse unturned in our search for deaths which may have occurred on the same planet as CV-19.  But we also have a ton of deaths in December, well over half of which will turn out to be in the fully vaxed.

The active cases analysis shows rollover, but again, let us be cautious.  As you will also see in the week-over-week charts, the daily percent change, which represents the change in the change, suggests we are heading down, and typically it is pretty fast.  But the daily cases are still up there.