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Breakthrough Event Proportions Update, November 29

By November 30, 2021Commentary

More of Dave Dixon’s stellar work.  This is the proportions chart, just showing the relative contribution of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the fully vaxed and the unvaxed.  All my usual caveats apply about the categorization of people, reporting lags, etc.  But notwithstanding boosters, etc., etc., you see the steady movement upward in the proportions.  And again, this isn’t vaccine effectiveness, the case rates and a per capita analysis are more important for that.   But it does reflect where the burden of resource use and serious illness is coming from and it does feed the terror campaign.  Still waiting for the IB to apologize for his October deaths statement.  Look at the current report–over 50% of deaths are in the fully vaxed.  Dave’s notes again, for all the people who think we make this up:

1. The table and chart are updated for new data released by MDH on 11/29/2021, for the week starting 10/24/2021. The source is the data file found on MDH web page Other than adding data for the week of 10/24/2021 there are no changes to data for the prior weeks.
2. The data provided in the data file vbtcounts.xlsx is used without modification, other than to sum the weekly events and compute the breakthrough proportion. Vbtcounts.xlsx provides breakthrough and non-breakthrough cases, hospital admissions, and deaths for each week listed.
3.  MDH defines a breakthrough event as a Covid case, hospital admission, or death that occurs 14 or more days after completing the vaccination shots (not including boosters).
4.  The data published by MDH in this data file contains cases for those 12 and over only. Including cases for those under 12 would tend to decrease the breakthrough proportions somewhat for cases, but almost not all for hospital admissions (because there are so few admissions for those under 12), and even less for deaths.
The breakthrough proportions of the weekly totals for cases (43.3%), hospital admissions (34.7%) and deaths (54.7%) are all the highest yet reported.

Join the discussion 10 Comments

  • J. Thomas says:

    We gave Fauci, et al, their shot at vaccines. The results are glaringly obvious that they are not what was expected. Too many people are still dying under this narrow minded scheme. It’s time to allow doctors to be doctors, drop all government limiting protocols and turn the practitioners loose on this virus. They should have the full backing and support of regulators to try what ever works for their patients with the same immunity from liability that the vaccine jockeys have.

  • Harley says:

    These would seem to be very important facts for the public to be aware of. (Great job compiling and presenting the info!) The media is more concerned about showing us a handful of Christmas windows in Dayton’s downtown or letting us know why it’s still early to put your fish house out on Lake Minnetonka.

  • Abhijit Bakshi says:

    My suspicion is this is because Minnesotans haven’t received enough injections of the very safe and effective vaccines. We’re all in this together, and we need to stand together by standing apart and boosting incessantly. I recommend another booster for every man, woman, child, and xim or xer. The other issue here is global warming, which is probably causing more variants. It’s possible these issues are caused by the Phi Omicron Sigma variant which evades even the very safe and effective vaccines especially with all the dangerous carbon emissions in the air. We need to decolonize our energy to ourselves and the planet from this pandemic. This is the new normal. Fear can be healthy if it keeps you safe.

  • Kevin Nietmann says:

    As the percent of the population that is vaccinated increases, the percent of breakthrough cases in vaccinated people also increases. The data needs to be normalized for the percent of the population that is vaxed for each date in the data table.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      yes, and I have made that point repeatedly, which is why we provided the case rates by age, and if DOH ever responds to the request for better information, we will provide per capita rates by age. For now i think the case rates are pretty good.

      But, a big but, the absolute proportions are important because 1) we keep getting hit over the head with the hospital use issue, and if 40% of the hospitalizations now are in the fully vaxed, they are a big part of the capacity use and 2) our “leaders” keep using the absolute numbers as part of the terror campaign to keep restrictions in place. Over half the deaths in Minnesota are in the fully vaxed. it feeds the sky-is-falling crowd.

  • Mark Luhman says:

    It would be nice if we had a vaccine that works, we don’t. It would be nice if we had mask that worked and were practical, we don’t. It would be nice if lockdowns worked, they don’t. It would be nice if we could control a virus, the climate, and human nature, we can’t. When will people grow up and move on? Maybe never, if that true God help us.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      I think the vaccines work about as well as could realistically be hoped for, the problem in this environment is that if they don’t completely stop cases, people will keep freaking out

  • Chet says:

    Kevin, THANKS for all the ongoing work. I read your site daily and have tried to push others in your direction as well for excellent information.

    Question about the DOH data: on the daily Situation Update page, they show the data for “reinfections” which is approximately 11K for the state. Is it correct that DOH is defining a reinfection as (my words) an unvaccinated person who has been infected, recovered, and then become infected again sometime later while still not having gone through a vaccination step?

    And is it also correct that this is different than “breakthrough” cases where a vaccinated person has been infected more than 14 days after having completed their vaccination?

    Basically just looking to understand the difference (from the DOH) between “reinfection” and “breakthrough” data.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      The breakthrough and the reinfection data is separate, but their could be overlap and the state has acknowledged this. We are trying to get info on the overlap. A person who is infected, then gets vaccinated, then gets infected would be counted as both a breakthrough and reinfected. I don’t think a lot of people are in this category but it would be nice to know.

  • Daniel P says:

    Thanks for your work Kevin, it is great to see an honest discussion on a contentious topic. I would be curious to see your analysis of the Pfizer data coming out of the FOIA. You say the vaccines work as well as could be realistically hoped for but as the data seems to show decreased COVID cases the collateral damage of adverse events seems to be mounting. FDA redacted the amount of employees Pfizer had to add to deal with all of the adverse events reported in just 2.5 months. “Truth does not mind being questioned. A lie does not like being challenged”.

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