The eagerness with which some politicians and public health experts embrace the terrorism surrounding the arrival of a new variant, in this case the Moronic one, is distressing and depressing. I expect it from the media, but by now you would think there would be a little skepticism before we have absolute panic. Right now, there is no reason to think it is going to be either more infectious or cause more serious disease than Delta or other variants and no reason to think it will be worse in vaccinated persons.
Okay, as you can imagine, the research focus right now is all vaccines. This study from Israel examined household transmission from an index case to vaxed versus unvaxed members. Vaccine effectiveness in this situation where exposure was fairly certain, was about 80%. (JID Article)
This is a very important study, from Qatar, about the likelihood of reinfection and the protection against serious disease conferred by prior infection. Reinfection risk was low and the incidence of serious disease following reinfection was only 10% of the risk in the initial infection. It should be obvious at this point that infection provides a stronger and more durable adaptive immune response than does vaccination. (NEJM Article)
This study compared infections with different strains of CV-19. This was a prospective study based on routine cohort monitoring research in the UK. Cases from the Delta and Alpha-dominated periods were compared. Notwithstanding Delta terrorism, the outcomes in terms of symptom burdens seem remarkably similar. Hospitalization was somewhat less likely with Delta. It was claimed to be more transmissible, but the evidence for that is questionable. Reinfection with either strain was very low. (Medrxiv Paper)
Regardless of concerns about lasting effectiveness against infection, it seems clear that vaccination limits serious disease. In this research, being vaxed was associated with less serious outcomes when hospitalized. Those vaccinated persons who were hospitalized tended to be older and have more comorbidities. (Medrxiv Paper)
Cardiac complications are one commonly cited side effect of the mRNA vaccines. This study from France looked at those 75 years or older. There was no increased risk of or incidence of heart attack, stroke, or pulmonary embolism. For those of you inclined to believe the vaccine safety terrorism, you should read this study. You will astounded to see the typical or background rate of these events. When you are vaccinating tons of people, and there are a lot of background cardiac events, by coincidence you will see some in vaccinated people. Has zero to do with the vaccines. (JAMA Article)
Germany is like the US, people want to blame the unvaxed for their current wave, even though a very significant proportion of events are in the fully vaxed. In this study, 41% of recent cases were said to be breakthrough. Nonetheless, the authors “estimate” that the unvaxed are responsible for most transmission, both to the vaxed and unvaxed. This is typical modeling bullshit from made-up assumptions. (Medrxiv Paper)
This is a barely concealed hit piece on first responders. It found that law enforcement personel and firefighters who are unvaxed have much higher rates of infection and serious illness, but completely ignored a variety of confounding variables. I don’t doubt that vaccines have some effectiveness but, as I said, this is just a hit piece. (Medrxiv Paper)
As have many other studies, this one finds lower risk of hospitalization in vaccinated persons and less severe outcomes if hospitalization does occur. (JAMA Article)
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I am, perhaps, under a misconception. That is, I have the notion that as a virus continues to mutate it becomes weaker not stronger. If this is so, why would there be a need for regular inoculations and why the alarm with each new variant?
As we are with but two days left in the month of November, I note the CFR has fallen from 1.94% (Oct) to 1.37%. This based upon 2,603,775 cases and 50,554 in deaths in October with 2,249,283 cases and 30,867 in November. Also, of note, 2020 ended with a total of 342,395 deaths while this year there have been 434,142.
big lag on death reporting so little early to know what November will be. Viruses may or may not mutate to become more or less transmissible or to cause less or more serious disease. Flu has gone both ways over the decades.
Looking forward to your comments on Dr. Atlas’ new book. A lot of it reads like many of your thoughts over the last 18 months.
Kevin, I assume you are aware of excess deaths which cannot be blamed on the coof rising in many countries?
Can you help “those of [us] inclined to believe the vaccine safety terrorism” understand where these excess deaths are coming from?
Separately, I recall you posting study after study claiming the vaccines had amazing efficacy against infection, usually after only a few months of observation. It is now generally accepted except among the most low information individuals that vaccine efficacy against infection fades and eventually reaches zero or negative levels. Those studies were cheerleading that discovered nothing and contributed little.
So it is going to take more than a study from France about old people, and some snark about terrorism, to convince me that these very safe and effective injectable pharmaceutical products don’t have the worst safety profile of anything ever foisted on the public as a vaccine.
If you look by cause you will see it is nothing but CV-19, and causes that have to do with missed health care. Why are people so eager to pick up any piece of crap information floating around on the internet? Latest UK data shows month-to-month variation in excess deaths that is quite large and quite normal, it is called random. Efficacy against infection does not reach zero or go negative. And ignore all the real safety studies done with real medical data, because if you pay attention to those it might go against your anti-vaccine BELIEF, and that is all it is, a belief.
I don’t see how you can be so trusting of the medical establishment – not after all of the lies and con jobs seen over the last year and a half. There is absolutely nothing about this virus that justifies any of the actions taken in that time or any of the lives absolutely ruined. I am in my late 50s and I have had it and so has everyone I know – mild to mid flu, cold or no symptoms. I have only heard of two people who have died. Fat chance in hell I will take a vaccine for something like that. And if you call people who don’t trust the pharmaceutical companies or the CDC/NIH after all of the lies and BS they have engaged in – showing they are basically arms of the D party – then you instantly loose all credibility. Quit with the ‘anti vaccine or anti vaxxer’ BS. That does nothing except try to paint people as something they aren’t to cheaply win an argument.
Have you addressed how many people have died because politicians and cowardly medical people wouldn’t treat them with things like HCQ or Ivermectin when they first catch this virus? Withholding life saving medical treatment and allowing people to die is a crime against humanity and should be treated as such.
sorry, all made up crap, and I don’t and won’t have anything to do with it. If people don’t like it so be it, but the same understanding of research and data that led me to opposed lockdowns and other parts of the response, tells me the vaccines are safe, and no amount of misinformation and made up anecdotes can change the actual research findings.
SARS-COV1 (2002, 2004), MERS-COV1 (2012) came and went because we didn’t shut the world down and F with them. SARS-COV2 would have done the same thing had we let it go. There’s NO evidence against this statement unless you agree that SARS-COV2 as been genetically engineered and therefore different.
Regarding vaccines, the “BELIEF” system is driven by data. Fact; it’s a new technology with ZERO long-term studies. Fact; it was rushed to market with a foundation of lies (EUA). Fact, it’s NOT working as designed. Fact; it’s not approved in the US. Fact; neither are the boosters.
You need to get down off your high vaccine-horse and accept these facts. It may turn out to be a decent technology years from now after it’s had a chance to mature. Today, it’s a gamble that many smart, well informed, people are not willing to bet on. So far, time is showing that they are making a sensible decision if they are of normal health with no complicating factors.
I still have this uneasy feeling that you are only able to keep this blog from being taken down as long as you’re selling the vaccine narrative ! You have far too many contrary and accurate points about the rest of the sh*t show we’re living through. It’s been a line in the sand that’s ruined many great people so far.
you have no clue what you are talking about, none whatsoever, I have been involved in health research for over 40 years, I think I know what good or bad research is and what it says, and I definitely know when someone just has an emotional complex on a subject and is incapable of rational analysis.
I wonder if they are safe for children, though? https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/11/1353 In my mind, not enough safety or efficacy data in pregnancy or kids. But maybe this isn’t true medical data. I really don’t know anymore….
yes, I keep saying that I don’t think the trial sizes were large enough to establish clear benefits versus risk