Cohort Analysis, November 10

Been a while since we have updated this one, but Dave did it last night.  A little refresher, this is our attempt to track any trends in outcomes, that is hospitalizations and deaths, as a function of cases.  We take a set of cases back a couple of weeks and allow for what the CDC describes as the median length of time from case to hospitalization and case to death.  We track that over time.  Early in the epidemic we had very little testing, especially of people who didn’t have serious symptoms, so there were few cases detected and the rates look high.  They really weren’t, we just hadn’t worked our magic with grotesquely over-sensitive PCR testing.  Now look at the blips this summer in hospitalization rates and death rates.  That has nothing to do with an actual change in outcomes.  Once schools got out, we weren’t doing so much crazy testing there, so cases dropped and it looks like rates went up.  Leave out those blips and outcomes in terms of case rates have been remarkably steady.