Skip to main content

The DOH Is Boxed-in on Breakthroughs

By November 9, 2021Commentary

The DOH will resist as long as it can in releasing accurate breakthrough event data by date of event and age, along with other relevant information.  It is simply too damaging.  And the refusal to release this data is the strongest possible evidence that in fact it shows what the DOH is trying to hide.  The per capita rate nonsense they tried to publish is just obfuscatory drivel–you can’t see the formulas, you can’t see the denominators, you can’t match up dates, you can’t reconcile the data with anything else.  Dave Dixon has done his darnest to try to get them to see the light on releasing better data.

I don’t want at all to beat on the DOH staff, they only do what they are told to do by their political masters who sit around and conspire about how to twist the data to match the message.  So without any attribution or blame, here is the latest response to Dave on his request for better data and pointing out that the only conclusion people can draw from failure to provide it is that breakthrough deaths are in fact very high:

“In response to below (which was Dave pointing out the proportion of breakthroughs this week), it is completely inaccurate to compare the number of vaccine breakthrough (VBT) deaths reported in a week to the total number of deaths that OCCURRED in week as reported in the COVID-19 Weekly Report. It is also inaccurate to compare the VBT deaths reported “as of the week beginning 10/3” to whatever was posted on the situation update page for that week. Deaths are one of the indicators that have the most significant lag because:

a) death often occurs several weeks after initial infection, and
b) the death data has to be reviewed to determine whether COVID-19 was the cause of death, which takes more time than the review of the data for cases or hospitalization.

This means that the 111 new VBT deaths that were reported this week could have occurred at any point during the VBT reporting time period (May 1 – Oct 9th at present). It is therefore inaccurate to then compare that number to the people whose data of death was the week of 10/3-10/9. It seems you already know this because you ask that we report VBT by date of event rather than reported date. This suggestion has been shared with MDH staff working on VBT data.

We do not currently publish the death counts by week of event however, we do report the death RATES by week of event and you can find that information on the COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Update”.

You can see the box DOH has put themselves in.  All they have to do to fix this is give us the dates of events.  But logically they can’t because deaths were lower in mid and late summer and if the breakthroughs really relate to that time period, they are a very high percent of deaths then, even higher than they appear now.  And if the lag is that significant, how many breakthrough deaths are really occurring now that we won’t know about for another month.  So I don’t disagree at all that it is not optimal to compare the deaths on a reported basis, but that is all they give us.  And as I noted above, the rate data is truly trash, and useless, which I am sure is what they also intended.

Now look at the response.  See that period May 1 to October 9 that they said we should use for comparison.  The state had 1028 deaths by date of event during that time.  It had 483 breakthrough deaths during that time.  Uhhh, sorry but that is 47% of all deaths.   So the comparison the state suggested looks even worse.

But DOH can rest easy, because one way or another I will get them out of their box.

Join the discussion 5 Comments

  • Stacey Atneosen says:

    Kevin and Dave we owe you both so much getting the truth out like you do !
    Thank you for honest easy to understand data explanations.

  • Rob says:

    DOH cannot calculate a rate without the counts. This is obvious fraud. Their credibility is nil and at this point one would be a fool to follow any of their medical advice.

  • Darin Kragenbring says:

    Mr. Roche,

    Thank you for the determination to get more accurate data. This is shameful behavior on the part of our public health officials, and sadly not unique to Minnesota. And underpinning all of this suspect data is a PCR test that continues to be little better than a black box for the average citizen. Nearly everyone wants the vaccines to work; however, we citizens deserve to know if they are not working as well as initially advertised—by these same public health officials. From data that comes from other countries (England, Germany, Israel, e.g.) the preponderance of evidence suggests to me the vaccines have limited effectiveness. If one remembers the very small absolute risk reduction from the trials (vs. the oft-repeated relative risk reduction) this ineffectiveness shouldn’t be surprising. I also wonder because the world had a year with the virus before vaccines were available, wouldn’t the next year naturally be less severe because the most vulnerable have already been impacted?

    Keep up the terrific work.

  • Abhijit Bakshi says:

    “I don’t want at all to beat on the DOH staff, they only do what they are told to do by their political masters”

    I call BS. First, these people are only too happy to make a conspicuous, public, point of disobeying their political masters when it suits them (see case of Drumpf, Donald J. for illustration). Second, are we just giving up on basic morality? At what point does I voss just followink orders stop being a defence?

    I’m through apologising for the behaviour of these people. It’s just like hearing about how the rank and file at the FBI are good people and it’s all just a few bad apples at the top. Actually, the organisation is rotten to the core. So it is with your DOH.

  • J. Thomas says:

    When pro football QB’s and B-Ball players know more about viruses, data and vaccines than the people supposedly running this show, it SCREEMS as to how despicable and scandalous this situation is. They know exactly what they are saying and doing. They should all rot in hell for getting up every morning and continuing their cowardly lying ways.

    When you do get the MN Box open, I hope you’ll still have the energy and passion to take your show on the road. You and this blog should be a routine guest of the Sirius XM Patriot Channel (125) !

Leave a comment