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Breakthrough Events Through November 1

By November 6, 2021Commentary

Slight changes to this version of the table, again courtesy of Dave Dixon.  We now have the original report, which is a cumulation up to that point, but does serve as the base for changes in the second week of reporting.  You can see that how many breakthrough cases, hospitalizations or deaths are reported depends on how hard DOH tries to identify them, which isn’t very hard.  This week adds a significant number of breakthrough events, but down as a percent of all events reported in the relevant age groups.  For the first time in over a month, the breakthrough events reported grew more slowly than the total of all events reported.  Notwithstanding that, breakthrough events represent a very significant portion of all events.

Please also note that there are a total of 57,000 breakthrough cases reported.  That is a serious undercount for reasons we have explained before.  But just under 9000 reinfections have been reported.  Not just on an absolute number basis but if we did this on a days of exposure basis, and if we age-adjusted the results, you would see that breakthroughs happen more frequently than do reinfections.  You can draw your own conclusion as to what that means.

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  • Chuck says:

    I’m not sure what this means? Anecdotally? I just had a breakthrough case 5 months after Pfizer vaccines. I knew 6 people prior to my case. I now of 12 more cases since I’ve been off quarantine and chatting with people about breakthrough cases. Most of the people had Pfizer. I just learned of my first two after Moderna shots. In this time period, only 1 case of unvaccinated person, my 22 year old son who only got tested because I was positive though he had no symptoms. So, in my little part of the world, about 20 breakthrough to 1 unvaccinated case?

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