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How Many People Have Actually Been Infected?

By October 25, 2021Commentary

This chart is from an organization that does a good job of data analysis.  This is their latest estimate by state of the total number of infected persons, detected and undetected.  If the Minnesota number, 42%, is right, that is around three times the number of cases reported in the state.  Note that Wisconsin’s rate is pretty similar.  Of notice, the northern coast states have pretty low rates.  Something seasonal I think.  At this point, in some ways the higher the percent the better, as it indicates people with some level of adaptive immune response.

While we don’t know the overlap between those infected and those vaccinated, we do know that there are a lot of cases among groups that can’t get vaccinated.  I suspect the non-overlap combination of vaccination and infection in Minnesota has to be around 70% to 80%, which really should impact transmission significantly, especially if you stop using over-sensitive PCR tests.

Join the discussion 3 Comments

  • Brandt Johnson says:

    This is interesting I’m going to try to remember this. Looks like southern states might be almost done with the pandemic???? That would really shift the narrative if liberal states with high vax rates do worse from here on out.

  • Carrie says:

    How was the 42% determined for MN? Do you think 3x the number of positive cases is reasonable? I ask bc when my family had “it” in the spring, only 1 of 7 of us bothered testing. I know many others with similar stories.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      I think people are relying on antibody surveys of various types. And yes, I think 2 to 3 times the reported number is probably in the ballpark

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