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Relative Death Risks

By October 7, 2021Commentary

One of the points I made very early on was that this was an incredibly bifurcated epidemic in terms of serious disease and in particular the risk of dying.  Look at these tables and the charts.  Look especially at the relative risk of dying if you are infected and you are 29 and under versus 85 and older.  At 29 and under you have a 3100 times less risk of dying.  If you are 39 and under, you have an 1100 times less risk of dying.  Those are staggering differences in risk, and they are almost certainly understated, as many infections in the younger groups go undetected.  Now ask yourself how the response to the epidemic made any sense at all.   It couldn’t have been stupider.   You might also note the heavy concentration of cases in the younger groups, where most of the population is and where contact rates are higher.   Thanks once more to Dave Dixon.


Join the discussion 20 Comments

  • Ganderson says:

    Kevin- we’re hearing a lot about overflowing hospitals- is it BS, or is it that anyone sick with anything goes to the hospital. Time was you got a cough and a runny nose you went down to Rexall, loaded up on OTC medicine and went back home. Do more people now, mostly cuz they’ve had the bejesus scared out of the for the last almost two years, go right to the ER?

    Also, I see in the Strib this AM that the IB is reasserting his PanicPowers.

  • J. Thomas says:

    As long as you include the vaccination ‘project’ in the scope of your ‘stupid response’ comment, I’m with you.

    “Vaccines 4 All” was the end game. The rest of this story is nothing more than the process by which this goal was to be obtained. We are in the 3rd quarter of a very sick game, conceived, planned and executed by a bunch of filthy rich psychopaths’ who want to run the world. I’m astounded at the level of ignorance in the general public that has capitulated to this tyranny. If the US fails, it will be because of the collective stupidity and naivety of ideological liberals’ who believe in the government’s promises of unicorns, rainbows and equality for all. We will all end up as equally miserable drones, hollowed out of all ambition, goals and dreams, standing in lines for our food and routine jabs to routinely validate our subordination to the technocrats.

    But on a bright note, DOW is up 500+ today and therefore all is well …. fools !

  • Colonel Travis says:

    Isn’t the CFR for influenza between 0.1 and 0.2%? Cumulatively (key word), is this not what we’re dealing with for basically everyone with CV19?

  • LeeS says:

    Be interesting to know fatality rate of the elderly who are metabolically healthy… probably difficult to get this info.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      we have some information on comorbidities, and it is clear among all age groups that people in poorer health are more likely to get seriously ill

  • Arne says:

    Given the risk disparity, do you have a sense of why the authorities are trying to require masks, vaccines, etc. for people under 50, when it would be more sensible to, for example, force Social Security and disability recipients to get a vaccine in order to keep getting benefits?

  • stinkerp says:

    Also notice the dramatic increase in case fatality rate for those over the average life expectancy of Americans, 78. I’d like to see a comparison of relative risk of dying from any cause and the risk of dying from the Wuhan Lab Virus for retirees, age 65+. I suspect they are pretty similar, but I don’t know.

  • Ann in L.A. says:

    Here’s LA County: from

    Under 5 years old: 36,733 cases, 1 death, CFR = 0.0027%
    5 to 11 years old: 76,789 cases, 1 death, CFR = 0.0013%
    12 to 17 years old: 87,596 cases, 5 deaths, CFR = 0.0057%
    18 to 29 years old: 330,281 cases, 175 deaths, CFR = 0.053%
    30 to 49 years old: 461,465 cases, 1,753 deaths, CFR = 0.380%
    50 to 64 years old: 256,636 cases, 5,268 deaths, CFR = 2.053%
    65 to 79 years old: 102,282 cases, 8,460 deaths, CFR = 8.271%
    80+ years old: 33,271 cases, 8,598 deaths, CFR = 25.84%

  • Healthy Cynic says:

    It was not stupid, it was a political opportunity, aggressively seized.

  • S D Jacka says:

    Very interesting. I’d be most grateful for a link to the published data.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      It is at the Department of Health Coronavirus page, look at the weekly report and you will find the tables there.

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