Another way to see the effect of vaccinations, thanks to Dave Dixon. The long-term residents and staff were prioritized for vax. The early heavy percent of cases in LTC is purely an artefact of testing policies. The trough in late winter and spring is likely the effect of vaccination. That effect now appears to be wearing off. The spike in cases in early September was a data dump. But there is still an upward trend there.
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The trough in the spring could just as likely been due to seasonality. I think it’s at least worth considering. The vaccine rollout timing could have been perfectly aligned with a natural spring case decline.